ES Daily Plan | February 21, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Another quick update today as I'm still feeling a bit under the weather. Wednesday’s price exploration higher was immediately rejected during the overnight session, leading to a test of the initial downside target at 6145, which held up well overnight.
The RTH session unfolded differently, with sellers immediately taking control of 6145, signaling intraday weakness as the market settled back into the Friday-to-Tuesday distribution. Sellers cleared all downside targets down to 6114, cleaning up last week’s poor structure in the process. With an elevated VIX, they remained in control of the auction and reloaded on bounces. A poor low formed following the failure to extend the initial balance, which was 47 handles wide. Typically, a very wide IB sets the stage for rotational activity. The G-period saw an afternoon rally, providing an opportunity to watch for short setups against the full session VWAP, targeting a continuation lower and a cleanup of the poor low. However, sellers failed to print new lows and instead got squeezed into the closing session.
Wednesday’s price exploration higher was rejected today, triggering long liquidation during the initial balance and effectively cleaning up last week’s poor structure. However, the lack of stronger sellers led to a return to value. Buyers aim to reclaim 6145 to target a cleanup of Wednesday’s poor high, while a move back below 6127 would open the door for a revisit of today’s unfinished business at the lows.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6145, marking the previous week’s high. Holding below this level would target 6127, with a final target at 6104 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely failure to hold below 6145 would signal strength, targeting the prior non-back-adjusted ATH at 6163, with a final target at the back-adjusted ATH at 6184.50 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6145.
Break and hold above 6145 would target 6163 / 6184
Holding below 6145 would target 6127 / 6104
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.28 and 14.68. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6184 with VIX below 14.68 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6104 with VIX above 16.28 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you very much! Hope you feel well soon!
Thank you Smash! Feel better ❤️🩹