ES Daily Plan | February 20, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Another quick update today as I'm still feeling a bit under the weather. The overnight session resembled the prior one, showing early strength followed by weakness and a return within the previous day’s range before the RTH open.
The RTH session was rather uneventful early on, with an initial balance range of only 7 handles. Buyers reclaimed and defended the 6145 level after extending the initial balance to the upside, ultimately leading to continued strength. The initial upside target, the non-back-adjusted ATH at 6163.75, was tagged and briefly exceeded in the J-period, where upside momentum stalled. As a result, all time frames are now one-time framing up. However, we carry forward today’s high as poor, given that we essentially have a triple top on the daily chart, lacking meaningful excess.
After two days of balance and acceptance of higher prices following Thursday’s trend day, the market saw price exploration higher today. In the process, the non-back-adjusted ATH at 6163.75 was cleared, making it a key level to monitor in the short term.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6163, marking the prior non-back-adjusted ATH. Holding below this level would target the previous week’s high at 6145, with a final target at the support area between 6124 and 6114 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely failure to hold below 6163 would signal strength, targeting the back-adjusted ATH at 6184.50, with a final target at 6206 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6163.
Break and hold above 6163 would target 6184 / 6206
Holding below 6163 would target 6145 / 6124 / 6114
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.08 and 14.46. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6206 with VIX below 14.46 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6114 with VIX above 16.08 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you very much! Hopefully, you will feel well soon
You are a true soldier my friend.
Thank you.
Sending Healing Vibes.....