ES Daily Plan | February 17-18, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
On Thursday, the market made a directional move away from a value area that has remained essentially unchanged for three consecutive weeks. The key question now is whether the market is ready for initiating activity or if it will return to value.
As outlined in the Weekly Plan published yesterday, a strong market would continue Friday’s behavior by accepting Thursday’s trend day, setting the stage for new all-time highs. If Thursday’s poor structure sees technical fills, buyers need to defend the breakout single prints at 6114. Failure to do so would signal weakness, opening the door for a return to value.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6140. Holding below this level would target a clean up of Thursday’s single prints down to 6114, with a final target at 6089 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 6140 would open the door for a test of the non-back-adjusted ATH at 6163.75, with a final target at the back-adjusted ATH at 6184.50 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6140.
Break and hold above 6140 would target 6163 / 6184
Holding below 6140 would target 6114 / 6089
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.54 and 14.02. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6184 with VIX below 14.02 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6089 with VIX above 15.54 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you very much!
Thanks Smash!