ES Daily Plan | February 14, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session saw a grind higher during Asian hours, with sellers emerging a few handles below the 6093 level. This level served as a key level for buyers to reclaim in order to attempt a directional move opposite to yesterday’s failed downside break, as discussed. The European session opened with weakness, breaking the intraday pivot at 6066; however, the market showed limited interest in spending time or volume below the 3-day composite value. The 6066 level was quickly recovered and defended by buyers, even after the PPI data release.
During the RTH session, the market reclaimed the 6093 level during the impulsive B-period, leading to a tag of the final upside target at 6107 in the C-period, thus completing the cleanup of Friday’s single prints. After a slight overshoot, the market pulled back, cleaned up the intraday single prints, and tested the 6093 level, where buyers emerged. The 6107 level definitely stalled upside momentum; however, there was potential for a test of 6121, as outlined in the previous plan, which would complete the bullish imbalance (P-shape) we had. A market holding above 6093 was bullish intraday, and change took place during the afternoon session as the market continued higher, forming another set of single prints and tagging—then exceeding—the 6121 level. The VIX held above its support level of 14.98, making it tricky to participate in the closing strength if you did not catch the afternoon pullback to ~6093. TIP: If you are holding a runner above the final upside target while the VIX remains above its support, a potential target can be the VIX reaching its support level—meaning you exit once it hits. VIX tagged its support level of 14.98 to the tick in the closing session.
The key question ahead of today’s session was whether buyers would attempt a directional move following Wednesday’s failed attempt by sellers. Today’s trend day provided the answer, forming two sets of single prints in the J and K-periods, where change took place. Failure to fill these single prints would be a sign of strength, targeting new all-time highs, while acceptance below 6114 would cast doubt on today’s move, opening the door for a return to the weekly VPOC at 6089.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6136. Holding below this level would target a clean up of today’s single prints down to 6114, with a final target at 6089, under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 6136 would open the door for a test of the non-back-adjusted ATH at 6163.75, with a final target at 6180 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6136.
Break and hold above 6136 would target 6163 / 6180
Holding below 6136 would target 6114 / 6089
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.88 and 14.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6180 with VIX below 14.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6089 with VIX above 15.88 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks for detailed explanation of $VIX. I got confused at 6107 because $VIX was the above level so I was expecting weakness. when I saw buyers emerged at 6090 i joined the party with $SPX 6100 C 0dte and ended session with +800% profits. Thank you 🙏
VIX(s) from the previous writeup, please take a note