ES Daily Plan | February 12, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Quick update today as the market remained in waiting mode ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data release. The overnight session was marked by weakness, with sellers breaking the 6075 level, which was a pivotal level during today’s session. It is also the weekly Smashlevel.
The RTH session opened outside Monday’s inside day; however, we saw an immediate return into the range, which can often trigger a move to the opposite side of the range. This is in line with the balance guidelines, which also apply to inside days. The first line of defense was at the 6075 level, which capped the upside during the A-period. After breaking it during the B-period, the Smashlevel at 6093 capped the upside in the C-period (6092), meaning we didn’t quite get a full traverse of the inside day range. A pullback unfolded during the subsequent periods, but sellers ultimately failed to break and hold below the 6075 level, providing an opportunity on the long side. The closing periods saw a look above and fail of the inside day, with the market closing back within Monday’s range. Both the short-term (5D VPOC) and medium-term (20D VPOC) value have aligned at 6089, which is within today’s range—suggesting the market is coiling for a directional move to watch for.
An open below Monday’s inside day range saw a lack of downside continuation, ultimately leading to a test of the opposite side of the range and a breakout attempt in the closing periods, which also failed. That said, the market remains in a waiting mode ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data, which could serve as a catalyst for a directional move.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6093. Holding below this level would target 6075, with a final target at 6045 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 6093 would open the door to filling the single prints up to 6107, with a final target at the resistance area between 6137 and 6147 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6093.
Break and hold above 6093 would target 6107 / 6137 / 6147
Holding below 6093 would target 6075 / 6045
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.92 and 15.12. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6147 with VIX below 15.12 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6045 with VIX above 16.92 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you Smash!
Thank you very much!