ES Daily Plan | February 11, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session gapped lower for the third Sunday opening in a row; however, this time, sellers failed to gain the same downward traction as in the previous two weeks. Buyers quickly reclaimed the 6045 level, capitalizing on sellers' inability to hold the gap, which set the stage for a potential test of Friday’s afternoon rally high at 6075, reached during the European session. Stronger sellers would not have allowed acceptance back within Friday’s range—an important early-session development that gave buyers confidence and served as a warning for sellers to be cautious in fighting the move. As always, the marked levels on the chart serve as crucial reference points for assessing market strength and weakness. The market's behavior at these specific areas provides valuable insights into its overall state.
While the overnight session was eventful, the RTH session was relatively quiet, opening above Friday’s afternoon rally high at 6075. Early attempts by sellers to gain traction below 6075, which aligned with the FS VWAP, failed—complicating the situation for Friday afternoon’s sellers. The 6075 level provided opportunities for long trades both early in the session and later in the F-period; however, the market ultimately failed to clean up the poor structure from Friday as sellers successfully defended the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution.
An eventful overnight session led to a very quiet RTH session, which formed an inside day within Friday's lower distribution. A strong market would fill Friday's poor structure and establish acceptance within its upper distribution, potentially setting the stage for a revisit of the scene of the crime from January 31st. Sellers will aim to return to Friday's value area for a retest of 6045, where a large set of single prints from the overnight session (6057-6045) is also located.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6093. Holding below this level would target 6075, with a final target at 6045 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 6093 would open the door to filling the single prints up to 6107, with a final target at the resistance area between 6137 and 6147 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6093.
Break and hold above 6093 would target 6107 / 6137 / 6147
Holding below 6093 would target 6075 / 6045
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.70 and 14.90. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6147 with VIX below 14.90 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6045 with VIX above 16.70 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks again for the excellent analysis. What exactly do you mean when you say that the market is potentially setting the stage for a revisit of the scene of the crime... Thanks
Thank you very much!