ES Daily Plan | December 6, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session was a significant non-event, trading within Wednesday’s upper distribution in an 8-handle range. The RTH session followed suit, with the A-period trading within a narrow 5-handle range before buyers attempted to push higher in the B-period. However, this attempt lacked follow-through above Wednesday’s high, leading to a reversal. The target for this reversal was to fill Wednesday’s single prints, where change took place, testing the Smashlevel at 6089.
Passive buyers were reloading a few handles above 6089, absorbing aggressive sellers who failed to fill the single prints due to insufficient size to push through the passive limit orders. This counter-trend failure prompted aggressive buyers to enter, driving a continuation higher—a recurring theme since last week’s breakout from the 3-day balance area. However, buyers were unable to sustain upside momentum after extending the initial balance, forming a poor high that led to a liquidation break. The trapped sellers above 6089 provided support during this downside move for a couple of hours. However, buyers faced greater difficulty in the afternoon session compared to recent sessions, ultimately resulting in a new intraday low during the last hour.
Today’s session printed another ATH, which remains poor and serves as a reference to carry forward. After some struggle, sellers managed to fill Wednesday’s single prints and close within its lower distribution. Remaining within the lower distribution sets the stage for potentially filling the gap, while negating the closing weakness puts a cleanup of the poor high into play. NFP tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6089. Holding below this level would target 6078, aligning with the weekly VWAP, with a final target at the unfilled gap at 6066 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 6089 would target 6105, with a final target at 6117 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6089.
Break and hold above 6089 would target 6105 / 6117
Holding below 6089 would target 6078 / 6066
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.20 and 12.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6117 with VIX below 12.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6066 with VIX above 14.20 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you for another great day!
Thanks! Were there singles prints yesterday? I don’t see them on the TPO.