ES Daily Plan | December 3, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update today following a rather uneventful session that remained contained between UT1 at 6864 and DT1 at 6824 for most of the day, keeping the market firmly within the daily balance area. Sellers tried to gain traction within Wednesday’s initial balance range overnight, but responsive buyers continued to step in.
During the RTH session, buyers made an early attempt to clean up Friday’s poor high, but the effort ultimately failed and instead resulted in the formation of a weak high. To clean up or repair a poor high, the market must auction above that level and leave excess. That didn’t happen, meaning we carry forward the current balance high as unfinished business. Also, any cleanup must occur during regular trading hours. As mentioned earlier, after the failure to initiate a move out of balance, the market remained between UT1 at 6864 and DT1 at 6824 for the rest of the session.
Today’s session didn’t change the broader context. The market remains in a state of balance, marked by responsive two-sided activity as it waits for new market-generated information. Generally, the longer a balance area develops, the more meaningful the eventual breakout. The upper balance extreme is marked by a weak high, while the lower extreme aligns closely with last week’s gap at 6792.50. Key levels within this range are 6853 and 6824.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6853. Holding below 6853 would target Wednesday’s IB High at 6824 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6792 (FDT)—the unfilled gap—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6853 would shift focus to the 100% IB extension and daily NVPOC at 6876 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6892 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6853.
Break and hold above 6853 would target 6876 / 6892
Holding below 6853 would target 6824 / 6792
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.42 and 15.74. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6892 with VIX below 15.74 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6792 with VIX above 17.42 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!