ES Daily Plan | December 16, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
A quick reminder: I’ve transitioned to the ESH26 (March) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 6830.75 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session saw an opening dip that buyers quickly absorbed, followed by a reclaim of the Smashlevel at 6890. Price then trended higher, tagging UT1 at 6909, where it temporarily stalled, before continuing higher to tag UT2 at 6930 right ahead of the RTH open. The overnight high at 6932.25 ultimately marked the HOD for the full session.
The RTH session fully retraced the overnight move during the initial balance, highlighting the tricky price action likely to persist this week. After one-sided activity in the first hour, the auction transitioned into two-sided trade for the remainder of the session, ultimately forming a b-shaped profile. The afternoon session was capped by the 6890 level, which remains a key level moving forward.
A tricky week—with NFP, VIX expiration, CPI, quarterly OPEX, and contract rollover—kicked off with a b-shaped profile, signaling long liquidation as overnight inventory was flushed. The immediate level of interest is the afternoon rally high at 6890. NFP is on deck tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6890—the afternoon rally high. Holding below 6890 would target today’s poor low at 6864 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6830 (FDT)—the ESZ25 settlement (roll gap)—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6890 would shift focus to 6909 (UT1). Acceptance above 6909 would signal strength, targeting today’s opening level at 6931 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6953 (FUT)—the ON ATH—under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6890.
Break and hold above 6890 would target 6909 / 6931 / 6953
Holding below 6890 would target 6864 / 6830
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.44 and 15.56. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6953 with VIX below 15.56 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6830 with VIX above 17.44 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESZ25 contract:
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6830.
Break and hold above 6830 would target 6849 / 6871 / 6893
Holding below 6830 would target 6804 / 6770
Thank you!
Back to balance we go! Thanks smash