ES Daily Plan | December 11, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session was a non-event, with trading activity confined to the lower end of Monday’s range. Sellers attempted to push prices below Monday’s low during the European session; however, the move lacked follow-through and resulted in a reversal before the open.
During the RTH session, passive buyers defended the Smashlevel at 6062 during the A-period, resulting in a couple of good bounces early on, as aggressive sellers, despite their efforts, failed to gain traction. However, after the failed initial balance extension in the C-period, buyers began to lose momentum, reopening the door for a retest of the 6062 level. Buyers continued to defend this level for several periods, but after one too many tests, it ultimately gave way, leading to a downside break in the J-period. Note how Monday’s b-shape profile was resolved in the process, effectively tagging the initial downside target at 6045 in the closing session. As a result, the daily is now one-time framing down, and the weekly has returned to balance. Observe the composite volume profile on the far right: there are essentially three high-volume nodes (HVNs) present at 6015, 6062, and 6098. The HVN at 6015 serves as the downside magnet as long as the market holds below 6062, while the HVN at 6098 becomes the upside magnet upon regaining 6062.
After a slow start, with passive buyers defending Monday’s low, sellers achieved downside continuation, forming another double distribution profile with single prints in the L-period separating the distributions. Immediate attention now is on the prior ATH at 6045, which was tagged in the closing session. The downside magnet, if weakness persists, is the HVN at 6015, while buyers need to reclaim the 6062–6069 area to regain short-term control. The main event tomorrow, of course, is the CPI data release.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6045. Holding above this level would target the resistance area between 6062 and 6069, with a final target at the resistance area between 6083 and 6090 under sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold above 6045 signals weakness, targeting the support area between 6025 and 6015, coinciding with the MA20.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6045.
Holding above 6045 would target 6062-69 / 6083-90
Break and hold below 6045 would target 6045 / 6025 / 6015
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.04 and 13.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6090 with VIX below 13.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6015 with VIX above 15.04 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks Smash! 6062 was tough to break..
Thank you buddy! What a great day for shorts.