ES Daily Plan | August 29, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | August 25-29, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
NVDA earnings yesterday triggered short-term weakness after-hours, leading to a test of Monday’s spike base at 6464, where buyers stepped in. The key for buyers after this drop was to regain acceptance within Wednesday’s value area, which is why the Smashlevel for the session was 6485—Tuesday’s VAL. Buyers successfully achieved this overnight and defended a perfect retest of 6485 for continuation higher.
The Smashlevel at 6485 remained of utmost importance in the RTH session, which kicked off with a test of the UT1 at 6508, where sellers stepped in. This was followed by a pullback with decent pace, leading to a retest of 6485, where passive buyers were active (see Figure 1). The 6485 level stalled the downside momentum, a sign of strength that confirmed the value of Wednesday’s session. After the initial balance was set, the market began to grind higher and cleaned up the overnight ATH at 6508.75, which continued to attract selling activity. However, relentless buyers managed to sustain upside momentum, printing a new RTH all-time high and coming just 2 handles shy of tagging the UT2 at 6525.
Recall from the Weekly Plan: a bullish outcome was anticipated if the market only partially filled Friday’s single prints and buyers firmly defended 6451. Additionally, in yesterday’s daily plan, it was reiterated that buyers maintained control, as the market continued building value within Friday’s upper distribution. The market is now one-time framing up across all time frames.
The market is moving out of balance, printing new all-time highs while cleaning up the unfinished business of an untested overnight ATH in the process—relentless buyers. The key now is to monitor for continuation or a lack thereof as we enter uncharted territory. A strong market would continue building value above the afternoon pullback low at 6502, also the prior RTH ATH, signaling directional conviction. Failure to do so would be a sign of weakness, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a phase of imbalance. PCE on deck tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6521. Holding below 6521 would target the afternoon pullback low at 6502 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at the support area between 6485 and 6477 under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6521 would signal strength, targeting 6540 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6564 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6521.
Break and hold above 6521 would target 6540 / 6563
Holding below 6521 would target 6502 / 6485 / 6477
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.22 and 13.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6563 with VIX below 13.64 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6477 with VIX above 15.22 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
At these levels interested to see if the floorboards get pulled out from under us or do we continue to boil the pot higher. Keep up the great analysis. Very helpful!!
Thanks Smash!