ES Daily Plan | August 28, 2025

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | August 25-29, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The key focus heading into today’s session was Tuesday’s highlighted spike area, which proved pivotal. The overnight session was quiet, trading within the spike area while briefly exploring prices above it. However, ahead of the RTH open, the market saw a minor liquidation break, resulting in an open below the spike base at 6477.

During the RTH session, all eyes were on whether Tuesday’s closing strength would be accepted or rejected. Opening below the spike base at 6477, buyers’ clear objective was to reclaim it—which they did immediately in the A-period. In the same period, a pullback unfolded toward 6477, where passive buyers were waiting (see Figure 1).

Figure 1

Defending 6477 this early in the session provided immediately valuable information, signaling caution on the short side, at least initially. The UT1 at 6495 was tagged in the E-period, where sellers were active. Both 6477 and 6495 were potential look-above/below-and-fail levels highlighted in the prior plan. Additionally, 6495 marked the upper extreme of the current playground between 6451 and 6495—a high-volume area/distribution that remains key in the short term. The afternoon session mirrored yesterday’s, with buyers attempting to push higher, but this established a poor high and a return to 6495.

Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs have converged, located within this week’s range. The market is coiling for a directional move, as such moves are often initiated from high-volume nodes. NVDA earnings after-hours have so far not produced a noteworthy reaction, with the market remaining within the high-volume area.

Price Action vs. Levels from the Daily Plan

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As discussed, the distribution between 6451 and ~6495 is the key area to observe in the short term. Expect choppy, two-sided activity within this range, while a directional move requires acceptance outside its extremes. Buyers maintain short-term control, continuing to build value within Friday’s upper distribution—only acceptance below 6451 could shift the tone. Immediate focus is on whether buyers can regain acceptance within today’s value area following after-hours activity.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6485. Holding below 6485 would target 6464 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6451 under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6485, would target the overnight ATH at 6508 (UT1). Acceptance above 6508 would signal strength, targeting 6525 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6540 under sustained buying pressure.

Chart: ES Daily Plan | August 28, 2025

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6485.

• Break and hold above 6485 would target 6508 / 6525 / 6540

• Holding below 6485 would target 6464 / 6451

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.62 and 14.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 6540 with VIX below 14.08 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 6451 with VIX above 15.62 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.