ES Daily Plan | August 27, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | August 25-29, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Another quiet session in the books. The key short-term area to monitor, as discussed, was Monday’s spike area highlighted in blue. Notable aggressive selling occurred during that period, which made the spike base an even more important reference. The overnight session saw immediate selling a tick below the spike base at 6464, followed by a headline-driven liquidation break. The market came a few ticks shy of filling Friday’s single prints at 6428 before reversing (ONL: 6430.75).
The RTH session opened right at 6451, Friday’s halfback and a level discussed in the Weekly Plan. While sellers defended it overnight, buyers gained control from the B-period onward in RTH. Sellers then held the spike base at 6464 for a couple of periods, triggering a liquidation break in the I-period back to the full session VWAP. This drop was picked up by buyers, who subsequently managed to break 6464, triggering some stops in the process. The break of 6464 allowed for more trending activity and ultimately resulted in an upward spike in the closing session, tagging UT1 at 6480 in the process.
Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs have converged, located within this week’s range. The market is coiling for a directional move, as such moves are often initiated from high volume nodes. There are no notable economic events on deck tomorrow; however, NVDA earnings are scheduled after-hours.
The key level heading into this week was 6451, marking Friday’s halfback, which has been successfully defended by buyers so far this week in RTH. Sellers ultimately failed to defend Monday’s spike base at 6464 today, triggering afternoon strength and an upward spike—which is of short-term interest.
Observe the notable high volume area between 6451 and 6495—this is our short-term playground. Expect choppy, two-sided activity within this range, while a directional move becomes likely once the market establishes acceptance beyond it. All eyes on NVDA earnings tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6477—the M-period spike base. Holding above 6477 would target 6495 (UT1). Acceptance above 6495 would signal strength, targeting 6508 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6525 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6477 would target 6464 (DT1). Acceptance below 6464 would signal weakness, targeting 6451 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6428 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6477.
Holding above 6477 would target 6495 / 6508 / 6525
Break and hold below 6477 would target 6464 / 6451 / 6428
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.36 and 13.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6525 with VIX below 13.88 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6428 with VIX above 15.36 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash. Overnight singles (fwiw), filled quickly during the AM session. Interesting that VPOC didn't follow up as the day progressed. We'll see how it goes.
Thank you Smash! Levels always on point.