ES Daily Plan | August 25, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | August 25-29, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Heading into Friday’s session, the market could either continue building value at lower prices—opening the door for downside continuation—or fail to do so, potentially triggering a short-covering rally above 6420. Sellers failed to gain meaningful traction below 6376, the value area high from July, which ultimately resulted in a short-covering rally—helped, of course, by Powell.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, immediate attention will be on where value develops early in the week following Friday’s short-covering rally, which left behind a significant set of single prints in the B-period. The key question is whether new buyers will be interested at these higher prices.
Friday’s afternoon pullback low of 6474, at the bottom of Friday’s upper distribution, serves as a short-term reference point for assessing market strength and weakness.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6474—Friday’s afternoon pullback low. Holding above 6474 would signal strength, targeting Friday’s highs at 6495 (UT1). Acceptance above 6495 would then target the overnight ATH at 6508.75 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6525 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6474, would target the support area between 6458 and the halfback at 6451 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6428 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6474.
Holding above 6474 would target 6495 / 6508 / 6525
Break and hold below 6474 would target 6458 / 6451 / 6428
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 14.92 and 13.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6525 with VIX below 13.52 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6428 with VIX above 14.92 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you. Was waiting for this
Thank you Smash!