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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session was rather uneventful, forming an inside day within Thursday’s upper distribution. Note how responsive buyers stepped in at the upper end of Thursday’s lower distribution, rejecting Thursday’s closing weakness.
As we’ve discussed, the market is now approaching a significant HTF area: the breakout point of the prior multi-week balance. How the auction behaves around this area will be crucial to monitor next week. As long as the breakout is defended, the broader bullish structure remains intact. Failure to defend it could meaningfully shift the tone.
Session Recap
Last week featured two sustained bear gaps, keeping sellers in short-term control. Friday’s inside day suggests short-term balance.
The key for sellers on early strength will be to defend the bear gap at 7720, while buyers will need to defend the multi-week balance breakout around the 7637 bull gap.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7705, Thursday’s afternoon rally high. Holding below 7705 keeps downside pressure intact and targets 7676 (DT1). Acceptance below 7676 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7659 (DT2), with 7637 (FDT), the unfilled bull gap, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7705 shifts focus to the bear gap at 7720 (UT1), with 7746 (FUT), last week’s VAH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7705.
Break and hold above 7705 would target 7720 / 7746
Holding below 7705 would target 7676 / 7659 / 7637
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.86 and 14.42. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7746 with VIX below 14.42 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7637 with VIX above 15.86 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you
Great work