Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Weekly Levels in Review
Last week kicked off with a failure to defend the low volume node (LVN) at 7793, triggering a failed-breakout scenario. In the event of a failed breakout, the primary objective was a rotation toward 7725, which was completed on Tuesday following a sustained true gap down (7766).
Wednesday established value above the prior day, but buyers were unable to fully fill Tuesday’s true gap, which was a sign of weakness. The session ultimately closed back within Tuesday’s range, making the short-term picture somewhat tricky.
The key for buyers was to defend 7725, which they ultimately failed to do on Thursday following another sustained true gap down (7720) that led to the formation of a double distribution trend day. We closed out the week with a rather uneventful inside day on Friday.
As we’ve discussed, the market is now approaching a significant HTF area: the breakout point of the prior multi-week balance (see Figure 1). How the auction behaves around this area will be crucial to monitor next week. As long as the breakout is defended, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A failure to do so could meaningfully shift the tone.
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Eastern Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟥 Daily: OTFD | Ends at: 7714
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 3W | High: 7838.50 / Low: 7542.75
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends at: 7345.75
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the multi-week balance breakout initiated earlier this month, when the market gapped above the prior ATH at 7648. Last week featured two sustained bear gaps and ended the weekly one-time framing higher, resulting in short-term weakness and a rotation lower. While sellers maintain short-term control, the broader structure remains bullish.
If we open with strength, the key for sellers will be to defend the bear gap at 7720, which aligns closely with the Weekly VWAP at 7723 and Weekly VPOC at 7726. Failure to defend this area would be short-term bullish.
If we open with weakness, the key for buyers will be to defend the multi-week balance breakout around the 7637 gap, which notably aligns with the prior SPX ATH at 7620. Failure to defend this area could meaningfully shift the tone of the broader structure.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7720, Thursday’s true gap down. Break and hold above 7720 would target Monday’s true gap at 7766. Acceptance above 7766 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7825 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7855, where responsive sellers can be expected.
This resistance area will be crucial for sellers to defend, as failure to do so would shift the weekly timeframe back to one-time framing higher.
Holding below 7720 would maintain short-term downside pressure, targeting the unfilled bull gap at 7637, which aligns closely with the prior SPX ATH at 7620. Acceptance below 7637, indicating a failed breakout, would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7570 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7540, where responsive buyers can be expected.
This support area coincides with the weekly bull gap at 7541 and will be crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would open the door for a return to the HVN at 7440.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7720.
Break and hold above 7720 would target 7766 / 7825 / 7855* / 7895 / 7935
Holding below 7720 would target 7637 / 7570 / 7540* / 7485 / 7440
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
As usual, a detailed Daily Plan will be posted tomorrow. Hope you all enjoy the rest of the weekend!
Battle of titans, and really difficult to trade for continuation. Citadel has almost finished selling Leopold the Dunce's low, NVDA earnings will be frontrun and likely sold, end of month shenanigans, macro picture is horrific, Bessent is completely in over his head with oil and bonds. It is going to be decided hour by hour.
Gaps everywhere