ES Daily Plan | August 12, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | August 11-15, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Today’s session offered little to write home about, as the market remained largely uneventful. The overnight session established a distribution above last week’s range, with responsive buyers stepping in on attempts to break the Smashlevel at 6417.
The RTH session was essentially a snoozer early on, with an initial balance range of just 11 handles. Sellers attempted to extend the initial balance to the downside in the C-period, but this instead resulted in a poor low and a reversal. In the F-period, it was buyers’ turn to attempt a shift in tone, which also failed and led to a return to value.
Note the notable high-volume area within today’s value, where the 5D, 20D, and 90D VPOCs are located. The market appears to be coiling for a directional move, as such moves are often initiated from high-volume nodes. During the afternoon session, sellers had more success, managing to gain traction below the initial balance range and finishing the session with a downward spike.
After Friday’s clean value break higher, today’s session saw value remain unchanged, suggesting bullish consolidation—until proven otherwise. However, the afternoon weakness opens the door to a possible “look above and fail” of last week’s inside week. Overall, the market remains in a 6-week balance, with today’s session closing within a notable high-volume area. This suggests the market is coiling for a directional move, with tomorrow’s CPI data release serving as a potential catalyst.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6396—the M-period spike base. Holding below 6396 would confirm the closing weakness, targeting the support area between 6383 and 6375 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6353 under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6396 would negate the closing weakness, targeting last week’s high at 6419 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at the resistance area between 6441 and 6451—the 6-week balance high—under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6396.
Break and hold above 6396 would target 6419 / 6441 / 6451
Holding below 6396 would target 6383 / 6375 / 6353
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.16 and 15.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6451 with VIX below 15.34 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6353 with VIX above 17.16 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Perfect 6451 top level.
Thank you!!