The expected volatility took place. However, the overall context of the market remains relatively unchanged. I will use the 4487 level to assess the short-term strength or weakness. Daily back to balance.
Apologies if this is covered elsewhere: I would like to understand the VIX better - adding it to Sierrachart I see various options. Please could you clarify which contract you are basing your analysis on? Very many thanks for your excellent work and for sharing it.
I monitor VIX cash, not the futures. I track it through Tradingview, using their ticker TVC:VIX, which offers real-time data and is available free of charge.
Thanks for your comments . To be clear I am not being critical . I am just trying to better understand. Where does one get the real-time CVD information?
I very much appreciate your daily analysis and hard work. It is very insightful and it is part of my nightly routine to read. I just don’t quite understand the confirmation of strength. I definitely understand to exercise caution beyond those levels. And as a result I look at your Vix levels to see if they reach those upside or downside targets. But you reference those specific targets along with those vix levels. And when we reach those targets in es without breaching support /resistance on Vix you seem to say that that would be an invitation to fade the move. So my understanding is that when you say trading above 4525 with a Vix below ... that does seem to be a signal to go long. Otherwise I would think you would say reaching the vix level of xxx is a signal of strength up until that es level and that is leave to possibly place a trailing stop. . But when you indicate that trading above a certain es level which by your definition is always at the end your last target of that zone with a coinciding breach of vix support is confirmation of strength to me that does sound like an invitation to buy not a warning not to sell. Not arguing with you . Again, j think your work is top notch. I’ve experienced profits when vix had breached your target before the es level, but when I read your last paragraph saying that trading above an es Level along with a vix level is a confirmation of strength it’s confusing when it Seems like an area to look for a failed breakout/breakdown. Thanks for all that you do
Breaching vix support and es 4525 ..isn’t that a confirmation of strength. ? Am I not understanding your daily reports? Took a bad trade as a result if vix was above support I wouldn’t have taken the trade. What am I missing?
Yes, hence the additional squeeze of 20 handles (HOD: 4544.75). Confirmation of strength are conditions where I primarily avoid counter-trend trades (reversals). However, this doesn't imply that I'm actively chasing further upside. Hence, the last sentence of every daily plan is: 'Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels.' The potential for a trend day was definitely there, with VIX confirming the strength. Yet, for this scenario to hold, ES had to maintain a position above 4525, which it ultimately failed to do, coinciding with the VIX returning above 15.08. The most favorable scenario for buyers today would be ES holding the retest of 4525, with VIX getting crushed. In such scenario, I would work the long side, buying dips, while also adapting my target expectations because of the intraday overextension towards the upside.
Hey Bmf, I recommend tracking the CVD as Smashelito mentioned in many of his past Newsletter. Smashelito said we should be watching CVD along with VIX. At around 10:30AM EST, when the ES drop from 4545 to 4535, the CVD dropped 5,500, and the VIX retest the VIX level that confirms the Bullish Strength. With in the next 15 minutes, the CVD dropped another 10,000.
Also want to take this time to thank you, Smashelito! Very appreciate your hard work, knowledge, and kindness. I have learned so much from you!
Apologies if this is covered elsewhere: I would like to understand the VIX better - adding it to Sierrachart I see various options. Please could you clarify which contract you are basing your analysis on? Very many thanks for your excellent work and for sharing it.
I monitor VIX cash, not the futures. I track it through Tradingview, using their ticker TVC:VIX, which offers real-time data and is available free of charge.
Thank you once again. Buddy great plan traded Longs and shorts. Perfect day!
Smash is the authority on market context!
Thanks for your comments . To be clear I am not being critical . I am just trying to better understand. Where does one get the real-time CVD information?
I very much appreciate your daily analysis and hard work. It is very insightful and it is part of my nightly routine to read. I just don’t quite understand the confirmation of strength. I definitely understand to exercise caution beyond those levels. And as a result I look at your Vix levels to see if they reach those upside or downside targets. But you reference those specific targets along with those vix levels. And when we reach those targets in es without breaching support /resistance on Vix you seem to say that that would be an invitation to fade the move. So my understanding is that when you say trading above 4525 with a Vix below ... that does seem to be a signal to go long. Otherwise I would think you would say reaching the vix level of xxx is a signal of strength up until that es level and that is leave to possibly place a trailing stop. . But when you indicate that trading above a certain es level which by your definition is always at the end your last target of that zone with a coinciding breach of vix support is confirmation of strength to me that does sound like an invitation to buy not a warning not to sell. Not arguing with you . Again, j think your work is top notch. I’ve experienced profits when vix had breached your target before the es level, but when I read your last paragraph saying that trading above an es Level along with a vix level is a confirmation of strength it’s confusing when it Seems like an area to look for a failed breakout/breakdown. Thanks for all that you do
Breaching vix support and es 4525 ..isn’t that a confirmation of strength. ? Am I not understanding your daily reports? Took a bad trade as a result if vix was above support I wouldn’t have taken the trade. What am I missing?
Yes, hence the additional squeeze of 20 handles (HOD: 4544.75). Confirmation of strength are conditions where I primarily avoid counter-trend trades (reversals). However, this doesn't imply that I'm actively chasing further upside. Hence, the last sentence of every daily plan is: 'Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels.' The potential for a trend day was definitely there, with VIX confirming the strength. Yet, for this scenario to hold, ES had to maintain a position above 4525, which it ultimately failed to do, coinciding with the VIX returning above 15.08. The most favorable scenario for buyers today would be ES holding the retest of 4525, with VIX getting crushed. In such scenario, I would work the long side, buying dips, while also adapting my target expectations because of the intraday overextension towards the upside.
Hey Bmf, I recommend tracking the CVD as Smashelito mentioned in many of his past Newsletter. Smashelito said we should be watching CVD along with VIX. At around 10:30AM EST, when the ES drop from 4545 to 4535, the CVD dropped 5,500, and the VIX retest the VIX level that confirms the Bullish Strength. With in the next 15 minutes, the CVD dropped another 10,000.
Also want to take this time to thank you, Smashelito! Very appreciate your hard work, knowledge, and kindness. I have learned so much from you!