ES Daily Plan | April 9, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
A quick update today to get this out promptly. Needless to say, navigating this market day by day is key, as volatility is on the extreme end with a VIX over 50. It’s crucial not to overstay your welcome in any trade.
A strong overnight session led the RTH to open at the upper end of Monday’s range; however, a failed attempt above Monday’s high triggered a sharp reversal. The session established a triple distribution profile, with sets of single prints in the L and G-periods. The closing weakness tested Monday’s excess low, finding responsive buyers. Immediate attention is on the highlighted M-period spike. A weak market will find acceptance below 4993, while a lack of initiating sellers would open the door for filling the poor structure. The daily is back to short-term balance.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 4993—the M-period spike base. Holding above this level targets the L-period breakdown single prints at 5064. Acceptance above 5064 would target the previous week’s low at 5103, with a final upside target at the G-period breakdown single prints at 5170 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 4993 targets the 20% correction level at 4934, with a final downside target at the 3-day balance low of 4870 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 4993.
Holding above 4993 would target 5064 / 5103 / 5170
Break and hold below 4993 would target 4934 / 4870
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 57.14 and 47.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5170 with VIX below 47.52 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4870 with VIX above 57.14 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!
Thank Smash!!