ES Daily Plan | April 8, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update: the context remains unchanged, with the market closing a second consecutive session around last week’s high. The overnight session remained within our key levels, 6667 (UT1) and 6605 (DT1), and continues to offer solid opportunities (see Figure 1). The reversal off 6605 was particularly notable, with VIX resistance at 26.02 providing confluence.
Sellers defended the Smashlevel at 6635 in RTH, leading to early weakness. Notably, the VIX breached its resistance in the process. Regular readers of this newsletter are aware that when the VIX breaches resistance, downside targets can act as magnets, making it crucial to monitor whether sellers step in on bounces. 6605 (DT1) was breached in the B-period, but sellers were unable to then tag the final downside target at 6575 (FDT). The auction returned to the 6605 area, where a notable battle unfolded during the C-period. While this was unfolding, the VIX remained above its resistance, and the market rotated lower for another downside leg. This time, 6575 (FDT) was reached, and Thursday’s single prints were effectively cleaned up. This marked the low of the session, as sellers were unable to extend further despite an elevated VIX. Despite a notably news-sensitive environment, our levels of interest continued to provide good reactions throughout the remainder of the session (see Figure 2).
Today’s RTH session did what the prior overnight session did: it cleaned up the poor structure from Thursday’s double distribution, with responsive buyers once again stepping in at the key 6575 level. The session closed with an upward spike, highlighted on the chart, marking a second consecutive close around last week’s high.
In the short term, we will monitor buyers’ ability to sustain the higher prices of the spike. Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6667 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 6610 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6646, the spike base. Holding above 6646 would target 6667 (UT1). Acceptance above 6667 would signal intraday strength, targeting 6692 (UT2), with a final upside target at 6715 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6646 would shift focus to the HVN at 6610 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6575 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6646.
Holding above 6646 would target 6667 / 6692 / 6715
Break and hold below 6646 would target 6610 / 6575
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 27.70 and 23.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6715 with VIX below 23.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6575 with VIX above 27.70 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Obviously, a big move has already been initiated. The key for buyers is to defend any attempts to return to the area where value has been developing over the past four sessions, making 6667 a key level to defend, along with 6646.
Don’t be in a rush to join an emotional move, let it settle first.
Thanks Smash!