ES Daily Plan | April 8, 2024
On Friday, the market retraced a big portion of Thursday’s emotional structure, forming an inside day.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
On Friday, the market retraced a big portion of Thursday’s emotional structure, forming an inside day. The session closed within the 5247-5263 area, highlighted as a pivotal battleground. The 5263 level represents the low of the inside week, marking the end of the weekly one-time framing up after its breach. Conversely. the 5247 level marks the FOMC breakout point.
Buyers aim to establish value above the highlighted battleground, targeting a full cleanup of Thursday’s structure toward 5293. On the flip side, sellers aim to maintain downside pressure by building value below, targeting Friday’s lows.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5247, representing FOMC breakout point. Holding above 5247 would target the inside week low of 5263. Acceptance above 5263 would target fills of the remaining poor structure from Thursday toward 5293. Break and hold below 5247 would target Friday’s IB high at 5231, coinciding with a structural anomaly. Acceptance within the IB would target Friday’s opening level at 5211.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 5247.
Holding above 5247 would target 5263 / 5293
Break and hold below 5247 would target 5231 / 5211
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.84 and 15.22. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5293 with VIX below 15.22 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5211 with VIX above 16.84 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Now this crowded 70 area could be explosive.
Thank you for your great work 🍀