ES Daily Plan | April 7, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Thursday’s true gap down was followed by another large true gap down on Friday, after which the market dropped an additional 200 handles. Friday’s session closed 6.56% below the Monthly VWAP (5461) and 572 handles below the week’s most traded price by volume (VPOC) of 5675, underscoring the extreme volatility observed during the latter half of last week. Before anything else—mind your step. Manage risk carefully and avoid overstaying your welcome in trades.
The immediate level of interest is Friday’s RTH low at 5103, which was breached during after-hours trading. A weak market will build value below, while reclaiming last week’s low could trigger a counter-move.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5103, Friday’s RTH low. Holding below this level signals continued weakness, targeting 5050, with a final downside target at 4991 under sustained selling pressure, marking the April 2024 Low (RTH). On the flip side, failure to hold below 5103 targets Friday’s TPOC at 5174, with a final upside target at the resistance area between 5210 and 5220 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5103.
Break and hold above 5103 would target 5174 / 5210 / 5220
Holding below 5103 would target 5050 / 4991
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 49.52 and 41.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5220 with VIX below 41.08 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 4991 with VIX above 49.52 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
4840!
Wow ES acting like NQ 😂… insane speedy price moves.