ES Daily Plan | April 4, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Keeping it brief today to get this out as quickly as possible. As mentioned yesterday, the market remains highly emotional, with very light liquidity leading to fast and erratic price action. VIX is at 30—mind you step. The outlier target for today was the weekly support area between 5480 and 5450, which was breached in the closing session. The break of the Weekly Extreme Low adds further complexity heading into tomorrow. Emotional markets often push traders into impulsive, irrational decisions—stepping aside until conditions stabilize might not be a bad idea.
Sellers sustained downside continuation today following yesterday’s after-hours weakness, tagging the outlier targets at 5480 and 5450 before closing at the lows after a downward spike. The market is one-time framing down across all time frames, keeping sellers firmly in control of the auction. I’ll use the 5444 level as a short-term reference point to gauge today’s closing weakness. NFP tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5444, the M-period spike base. Holding below this level signals continued weakness, targeting the unfilled gap at 5396, the daily NVPOC at 5367, with a final downside target at 5345 under sustained selling pressure, marking a weekly NVPOC. On the flip side, failure to hold below 5444 targets today’s VPOC at 5482, with a final upside target at the resistance area between 5509 and 5519 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5444.
Break and hold above 5444 would target 5482 / 5509 / 5519
Holding below 5444 would target 5396 / 5367 / 5345
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 31.88 and 28.16. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5519 with VIX below 28.16 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5345 with VIX above 31.88 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you Smash! What a week.
The significance of keeping past weekly levels 👀