ES Daily Plan | April 30, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Similar to the prior overnight session, early strength resulted in a break of the initial upside target at 7180 (UT1); however, buyers struggled to gain acceptance within Monday’s lower distribution, leading to a return into Tuesday’s range prior to the RTH open.
The RTH session opened within the prior day’s range and value, right in the middle of the composite high volume area, meaning we could expect two-sided activity early on. A Look Below and Fail setup at 7156 during the Initial Balance was essentially the only meaningful trade opportunity. Notice how price made a new low while cumulative volume delta (CVD) did not, signaling a lack of aggressive seller participation and potential exhaustion (see Figure 1).
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is a running total of the difference between aggressive buying (market buys lifting the ask) and aggressive selling (market sells hitting the bid). It helps reveal underlying order flow pressure that is not always visible in price alone, and can be used to identify absorption, exhaustion, and potential shifts in control between buyers and sellers when price and volume behavior begin to diverge.
This is a divergence I like to see, specifically around predefined levels of interest, in today’s case the Smashlevel. Once 7156 was reclaimed, the retest attracted buying activity, maintaining the pressure on trapped sellers. While it produced a solid move, it came a couple of handles short of 7180 (UT1). The remainder of the session essentially held within the composite HVN. The VIX resistance level at 18.84 held well throughout the session, providing potential ES scalps. After-hours trading had the potential to be volatile, and it was; however, it closed back within today’s range.
Smashlevels Recap
Today’s session saw two-sided trade within the composite high volume area, meaning nothing has changed contextually, as the auction remains in a state of balance awaiting further market-generated information.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7180 (UT1), the low volume node (LVN), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7126 (DT1), the prior multi-day value support.
Failed breakouts from this range remain of interest for fading back to value, a classic mean-reversion strategy in balanced conditions.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7150, the Initial Balance Low. Holding above 7150 signals stability and targets the LVN at 7180 (UT1). Acceptance above 7180 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7208 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7230 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7150 would shift focus to 7126 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7092 (FDT), the HTF level, under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7150.
Holding above 7150 would target 7180 / 7208 / 7230
Break and hold below 7150 would target 7126 / 7092
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.78 and 17.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7230 with VIX below 17.84 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7092 with VIX above 19.78 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
The newsletter keeps getting better, thanks for the detail of explaining the (CVD)
Caught that LBAF from 7157 to just shy of the hilltop at 6173. Thanks Smash!