ES Daily Plan | April 3, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Buyers attempted to reclaim the Smashlevel at 5684 early in the overnight session, but the attempt was met with responsive sellers within Tuesday’s excess high. The subsequent weakness led to all downside targets being tagged before the RTH session opened. The VIX also breached its resistance level of 23.02 pre-open, signaling the potential for a weak session if sellers could break and hold below the support area between 5624 and the final target at 5614. The key question was how likely that scenario was, given that the market was waiting for Trump after-hours.
The RTH session looked below 5614 and failed, triggering a significant reversal off support (LOD: 5610.75). In the process, the market cleaned up the highlighted poor structure from the prior plan, tagging the final upside target at 5740 (HOD: 5739.25) before a reversal unfolded. Notably, the VIX dropped below its resistance just five minutes into the RTH session. The afternoon session was fairly uneventful, as the market pulled back to retest the initial balance high, where buyers stepped in.
The big move, of course, unfolded after-hours. The market spiked higher, testing the weekly resistance area between 5760 and 5790 (after-hours high: 5773.25), before completely collapsing 200 handles (!)—now trading within Monday’s lower distribution.
The conditions are straightforward: A weak market will continue to establish value within Monday’s highlighted lower distribution, accepting the after-hours drop and favoring further downside continuation. Failure to do so—meaning the market returns back within last week’s range, rejecting Monday’s lower distribution—could trigger a short-covering rally.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5581, Monday’s IB high. Holding below this level targets the support area between 5560 and 5550, with a final downside target at 5520 (tested) under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold below 5581 targets the resistance area between at 5615 and 5624, with a final upside target at 5647 under sustained buying pressure. Outlier targets: Weekly support area 5480-5450 (tested).
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5581.
Break and hold above 5581 would target 5614 / 5624 / 5647
Holding below 5581 would target 5560 / 5550 / 5520
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.72 and 20.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5647 with VIX below 20.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5520 with VIX above 22.72 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you very much!
Thanks Smash!