ES Daily Plan | April 29, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session kicked off with a pullback, and in the event of an immediate pullback, the levels buyers needed to defend to maintain directional conviction were 5512 and 5475. The market didn’t quite reach 5512 (ONL: 5516.25) before finding responsive buying. The Smashlevel at 5550 was reclaimed ahead of the RTH open.
The RTH session played out in a similar way to the overnight session, marked by early weakness followed by a V-shaped reversal. We opened with a very small true gap up, which was filled immediately, but buyers stepped in to defend, leading to an impulsive move higher. The initial upside target was 5581, with the market reaching 5578.75 before sellers stepped in, including a notable passive seller at 5575. By the end of the A-period, the market had returned within Friday’s range—typically a bearish development after gapping higher. During the B, C, and D-periods, buyers attempted to reclaim Friday’s high but struggled to gain meaningful traction, leading to continued downside pressure and the formation of a double distribution profile.
Sellers breached the 5512 level and defended it from below for several periods, opening a window of opportunity to sustain downside pressure as the VIX breached its 26.48 resistance level during the H-period. However, once the I-period ended the intraday one-time framing down—reclaiming 5512 in the process, with the VIX falling back below 26.48—the odds of reaching the final downside target at 5475 diminished significantly. As mentioned, a V-shaped reversal unfolded during the afternoon session, rejecting the double distribution, with the market returning to the 10% correction level at 5550.
Today’s early weakness, after failing to sustain the true gap up, led to a V-shaped reversal during the afternoon session and a return to 5550—a level that remains key in the short term. The short-term context remains unchanged, with the daily one-time framing up still intact.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5550—the 10% correction level. Holding below this level targets the HVN at 5512, with a final downside target at 5475 under sustained selling pressure—last week’s VPOC. On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 5550 targets 5575, with a final upside target at the unfilled gap at 5610.75 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5550.
Break and hold above 5550 would target 5575 / 5610
Holding below 5550 would target 5512 / 5475
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 26.82 and 23.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5610 with VIX below 23.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5475 with VIX above 26.82 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!
Thank you. As always, great insight and solid work.