ES Daily Plan | April 28, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Heading into this week, the key area was the low volume node separating Friday’s double distribution trend day, as discussed in our preparations. A strong response would involve building value within Friday’s upper distribution while rejecting attempts to gain acceptance back within the lower distribution. Overnight, sellers achieved an immediate break below the Smashlevel at 7183, but traction into Friday’s lower distribution remained limited. Once 7183 was reclaimed, any immediate potential for weakness was removed, which was reflected in the price action as the market rallied higher.
The RTH session opened within Friday’s upper distribution, where two-sided activity developed during the morning session, a bullish development in the context of Friday’s trend day. A failed Initial Balance extension to the upside in the C-period triggered a rotation lower to once again test the key 7183 level. After holding multiple tests of 7183, sellers finally forced a break. What should have accelerated lower instead turned into a textbook trap (LBAF) and reversal in line with the prevailing trend (see Figure 1). Passive buyers were able to absorb the aggressive selling effort, exactly the type of behavior you want to see in an uptrend. The initial upside target at 7210 (UT1) was tagged in the closing session.
A key principle is that in an uptrend, the best long setups often emerge after a selling effort fails to shift tone and momentum, typically leading to continuation in the direction of the trend. The same applies in reverse for a downtrend, where the best short setups emerge after a buying effort fails.
Smashlevels Recap
The failure of sellers to gain traction within Friday’s lower distribution led to upside continuation, forming another double distribution trend day with single prints in the H-period.
The same approach applies: use the LVN, which aligns with last week’s high, to gauge the short-term state of the auction.
Sellers’ main objective is to negate today’s trend day by returning inside last week’s range, which could potentially open the door for a revisit of the HVN at 7162. Failure to do so would maintain upside pressure.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7200, last week’s high, aligning with an LVN. Holding above 7200 signals stability and targets 7216 (UT1). Acceptance above 7216 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7232 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7260 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7200 would shift focus to the LVN at 7180 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7162 (FDT), the HVN, under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7200.
Holding above 7200 would target 7216 / 7232 / 7260
Break and hold below 7200 would target 7180 / 7162
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.04 and 17.02. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7260 with VIX below 17.02 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7162 with VIX above 19.04 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!
Good analysis as always Smash.
Given the solid uptrend in the last couple weeks, do you find it unsurprising that such little ATR was covered today, despite value continuing to be built in support of the trend?