ES Daily Plan | April 24, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Notable trading activity unfolded during the overnight session, as the market opened with a true gap up and quickly tagged all intraday upside targets. Momentum temporarily stalled at the final upside target of 5419, resulting in an almost 40-handle drop. During the European session, buyers managed a continuation higher, accompanied by the VIX breaking below its support level at 28.28—which proved pivotal today. In my pre-open post on X, I reiterated that the main target was a full traverse of last week’s range on continued strength, given that Monday's session marked a failed breakdown.
The RTH session immediately completed the traverse, tagging 5496, after which I mentioned being cautious about chasing. One reason was that the main target for the failed breakdown had been reached; another was that we had entered the weekly resistance area between 5490 and 5530, as highlighted in the Weekly Plan. In a prevailing downtrend, chasing longs into resistance is best avoided—it’s an area for longs to book profits. The market formed a poor high, then flushed out late longs in the D-period as sellers extended the initial balance to the downside. The afternoon session saw two-sided activity below the initial balance, closing the session at the lows.
Significant overnight activity resulted in a true gap up, which quickly led to a full traverse of last week’s range—our main upside target. After that, activity weakened, and the session closed at the lows, leaving the market in a bit of a no-man’s land. A strong response would involve reclaiming the afternoon rally high at 5442, while a weak response would involve filling the gap at 5339.25 with acceptance within Tuesday’s range.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5385—the top of the gap. Holding above this level targets the afternoon rally high at 5442, with a final upside target at today’s high of 5500 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5385 targets the unfilled gap at 5339.25, with a final downside target at 5315 under sustained selling pressure—a downside magnet in the absence of strength.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5385.
Holding above 5385 would target 5442 / 5500
Break and hold below 5385 would target 5339 / 5315
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 30.42 and 26.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5500 with VIX below 26.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5315 with VIX above 30.42 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! VIX testing support during the afternoon rally was perfect timing!
Thank you Smashie!! - I appreciate you and the time you take to put these newsletters out.
I pray I get to the point where I see what you see.
thanx again
-Newb