ES Daily Plan | April 21, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, the market is currently in a state of short-term balance, awaiting further market-generated information after forming an inside week last week. Sellers maintain control of the auction in both the monthly and weekly time frames—suggesting no shift in tone unless an inside week breakout occurs. Immediate attention is on Thursday’s range, which cleaned up the poor structure from Wednesday and formed an inside day.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5298—Thursday’s initial balance low. Holding above this level targets Thursday’s high at 5360, with a final upside target at the resistance area between 5400 and 5419 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5298 targets the inside week low at 5251, with a final downside target at the support area between 5205 and 5181 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5298.
Break and hold above 5298 would target 5360 / 5400 / 5419
Holding below 5298 would target 5251 / 5205 / 5181
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 31.78 and 27.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5419 with VIX below 27.52 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5181 with VIX above 31.78 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!
Smash has nothing between 5181 to 5110 for buyers...