ES Daily Plan | April 2, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Trading activity during the overnight session remained within Monday’s upper distribution for the most part, with sellers defending the Smashlevel at 5657 and buyers being responsive within the single prints area. Defending the 5617 level was crucial for buyers, as that was where change took place on Monday, as discussed.
The RTH session opened within Monday’s upper distribution, and as reiterated in the pre-open post on X, the key battleground was between 5657 and 5617, as highlighted in the previous plan. During the initial balance—the first 60 minutes of RTH (A and B periods)—sellers attempted to gain traction in Monday’s lower distribution after breaking the 5617 level. However, they failed to establish acceptance below 5617, as the market showed little interest in remaining below that level. A notable observation during the formation of the B-period low, today’s LOD, was the VIX tagging its resistance level at 23.52 to the tick (HOD: 23.52).
The market's failed attempt to negate Monday’s double distribution trend day triggered a notable reversal. The C-period extended the initial balance, forming single prints, and the D-period continued in the same direction, partially filling the poor structure from Friday’s session. The initial upside target at 5687 was tagged in the F-period, stalling the upside momentum. The afternoon session saw a pullback, traversing the developing value area and filling the intraday single prints. However, buyers managed to pick up the dip during the closing session. The daily has returned to balance after breaking Monday’s high, forming a 3-day balance area.
The early failure to gain acceptance within Monday’s lower distribution led to a continuation higher, partially filling the poor structure left by Friday’s trend day. Buyers aim to continue cleaning up the highlighted low-volume area from last week, with the ideal scenario being a return to last week’s value area. Conversely, sellers are focused on a return within today’s IB, with their most favorable scenario involving establishing value below last week’s low—something they have struggled with so far. Tariff day tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5684, the bottom of today’s excess high. Holding below this level targets 5650, with a final downside target at the support area between 5624 and 5614 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold below 5684 targets Friday’s breakdown single prints at 5706. Acceptance above 5706 signals strength, targeting 5724, with a final upside target at 5740 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5684.
Break and hold above 5684 would target 5706 / 5724 / 5740
Holding below 5684 would target 5650 / 5624 / 5614
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.02 and 20.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5740 with VIX below 20.52 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5614 with VIX above 23.02 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Great stuff, thanks!
Always Grateful!!!!! Smash you killing it everyday by day and weeks and months and years...….