ES Daily Plan | April 17, 2024
The primary objective for buyers is to end the daily one-time framing down by taking out today’s high of 5123.25. Failure to do so maintains sellers' confidence.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
Today's main focus, as outlined in the previous plan, was the two highlighted resistance areas: 5115 to 5125 and 5146 to 5156. Failing to reclaim the initial resistance would signal a weak market. Notably, both the overnight and RTH session saw selling activity within the 5115-5125 resistance area, capping the upside. In contrast to yesterday's highly emotional session, today's trading activity established a balanced profile with a notably smaller range. Consequently, there's no need for an in-depth analysis of today's session.
Sellers maintain short-term control, having defended the initial resistance area from 5115 to 5125 throughout the session. The continued establishment of value at lower prices is bearish in the context of Monday’s directional downside move. It’s worth noting that the 5D VPOC remains at 5205, but it will most likely shift to 5103 if sellers can sustain these lower prices post-Monday’s session.
The primary objective for buyers is to end the daily one-time framing down by taking out today’s high of 5123.25. Achieving this would target fills of Monday’s H-period breakdown single prints toward the resistance area from 5146 to 5156—a potential reload area for sellers. Failure to break the pattern of lower highs maintains sellers' confidence, with downside targets set at 5056 and 5040—these are also weekly targets. A reminder to exercise caution chasing shorts within the weekly support area, given its significance as outlined in the Weekly Plan.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5085, where notable order flow activity was observed today. Holding above 5085 would target the resistance area from 5115 to 5125. Acceptance above 5125, effectively ending the daily one-time framing down, would target the resistance area from 5146 to 5156—a crucial area for sellers to defend. Break and hold below 5085, indicating continued weakness, would target a downside continuation toward 5071, the 5% correction level at 5056, as well as the Weekly Extreme Low of 5040.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 5085.
Holding above 5085 would target 5125 / 5146 / 5156
Break and hold below 5085 would target 5071 / 5056 / 5040
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.46 and 17.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5156 with VIX below 17.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5040 with VIX above 19.46 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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