Smash, could you please explain why you included the note that if the orderflow confirms, fading to 7092-7098 would be a good setup, and why you consider it an "Advanced setup"?
It’s an advanced setup because it is counter-trend. In general, traders should align positions with the prevailing trend and avoid trading against it unless there is a clear, well-defined context for doing so.
The 7092–98 area is a level of interest from our HTF model framework and is worth monitoring closely. It is especially relevant in the current context given the notable distance from value references. It's worth mentioning that since this is a higher time frame level, it should be treated as a broader 20–30 handle zone rather than a precise single price level.
Perfect, I appreciate you taking the time to clarify my doubt. It's more like a zone in the weekly plan, similar to the W.E.H. and W.E.L. zones, which have a 30-point margin, and the internal zones of Bearish Response and Bullish Response, which have a 20-point margin.
Thank you again for all your daily help. What you do is incredible, and the way you've taught me to see the market is amazing. Add to that the chartbooks, which are the best I've seen in the entire ecosystem, and I want to say that you've laid more than one brick in my dream.
I tend not to focus too much on calling exhaustion zones in advance. I prefer to navigate the auction day by day. Buying pullbacks will continue to work until it doesn’t, and when it stops working we can use the levels to read the shift in behavior and gauge strength or weakness in the auction.
Thanks again. Please do consider updating on Twitter during RTH, if you see significant changes like you did few times last week. That fills the gap from the newsletter.
I don’t have the exact sequence in front of me, but I don’t recall many cases of consecutive weekly closes above the Weekly Extreme High.
The closest example I remember is around the April lows last year, where we had two weekly closes above the extreme high, but they weren’t back-to-back. Instead, it was a 3-week span: one week closed above, the following week did not, and the third week closed above again.
Generally, a weekly close above the Weekly Extreme High in a downtrend is a potential shift in tone. I’ve frequently mentioned in the Weekly Plans over the years that a meaningful change in the bigger picture typically requires a weekly close beyond its extreme.
7092 comes from our own HTF model framework. It just happens that it aligns closely with the back-adjusted ATH, but that’s purely coincidental and not something I factor in. A “break and hold above” is a better way to describe it, since it hasn’t been tested yet.
7092 is a level where we expect selling interest to appear. If that supply is absorbed and price reclaims and holds above it, that’s bullish, because it suggests the expected response didn’t materialize.
The reason a potential fade there is of interest tomorrow is that the auction is a bit extended.
However, the optimal approach right now is to be very cautious on the short side until some form of rejection plays out first.
Smash, I do not load the Visual Representation part (In terms of levels) in substack
Thank you for helping me understand the market context so flawlessly; the difference in how I make decisions is incredible. You're a great mentor.
Glad its useful! Now added!
Smash, could you please explain why you included the note that if the orderflow confirms, fading to 7092-7098 would be a good setup, and why you consider it an "Advanced setup"?
It’s an advanced setup because it is counter-trend. In general, traders should align positions with the prevailing trend and avoid trading against it unless there is a clear, well-defined context for doing so.
The 7092–98 area is a level of interest from our HTF model framework and is worth monitoring closely. It is especially relevant in the current context given the notable distance from value references. It's worth mentioning that since this is a higher time frame level, it should be treated as a broader 20–30 handle zone rather than a precise single price level.
Perfect, I appreciate you taking the time to clarify my doubt. It's more like a zone in the weekly plan, similar to the W.E.H. and W.E.L. zones, which have a 30-point margin, and the internal zones of Bearish Response and Bullish Response, which have a 20-point margin.
Thank you again for all your daily help. What you do is incredible, and the way you've taught me to see the market is amazing. Add to that the chartbooks, which are the best I've seen in the entire ecosystem, and I want to say that you've laid more than one brick in my dream.
Thanks Smash.. Dream run esp last 2 weeks. Do you see exhaustion zone on upside anytime soon?
Quite a move!
I tend not to focus too much on calling exhaustion zones in advance. I prefer to navigate the auction day by day. Buying pullbacks will continue to work until it doesn’t, and when it stops working we can use the levels to read the shift in behavior and gauge strength or weakness in the auction.
Thanks again. Please do consider updating on Twitter during RTH, if you see significant changes like you did few times last week. That fills the gap from the newsletter.
When is the last time we exceeded the weekly extreme high two weeks in a row ?
I don’t have the exact sequence in front of me, but I don’t recall many cases of consecutive weekly closes above the Weekly Extreme High.
The closest example I remember is around the April lows last year, where we had two weekly closes above the extreme high, but they weren’t back-to-back. Instead, it was a 3-week span: one week closed above, the following week did not, and the third week closed above again.
Generally, a weekly close above the Weekly Extreme High in a downtrend is a potential shift in tone. I’ve frequently mentioned in the Weekly Plans over the years that a meaningful change in the bigger picture typically requires a weekly close beyond its extreme.
Noted thank you. Yes the last 2.5 weeks have definitely been a shift in tone.
Thanks smash 💥 very interesting letter!
Thanks Smash. What do you mean by a “reclaim” of 7092? Are you referring to back adjusted ATH?
No, I don’t use back-adjusted levels.
7092 comes from our own HTF model framework. It just happens that it aligns closely with the back-adjusted ATH, but that’s purely coincidental and not something I factor in. A “break and hold above” is a better way to describe it, since it hasn’t been tested yet.
7092 is a level where we expect selling interest to appear. If that supply is absorbed and price reclaims and holds above it, that’s bullish, because it suggests the expected response didn’t materialize.
The reason a potential fade there is of interest tomorrow is that the auction is a bit extended.
However, the optimal approach right now is to be very cautious on the short side until some form of rejection plays out first.
Thanks. Helpful as always. Appreciate the thoughtful response!
Thanks GOAT!
Thanks Smash!