ES Daily Plan | April 16, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Quick update today as the context remains unchanged. The Smashlevel for today’s session was at 5475, which capped the upside after sellers stepped in early during the RTH session. The VIX support level at 28.25 was tested during this sequence, once again providing valuable confluence. As long as the market struggled to gain traction above 5475 and VIX held its support, there was a valid case for working the short side. If that were to flip, it would signal caution for shorts. It’s worth noting that the 5D VPOC has shifted higher, indicating that short-term value is following price, a positive development for buyers. In the Weekly Plan, we discussed how important it is for the VIX to drop below 29—something we’ve yet to see a close below.
The trading activity this week has been quiet thus far, with buyers building value above Thursday and Friday’s range but still struggling with Wednesday’s excess, keeping the weekly one-time framing down intact. The key question now is whether this 2-day consolidation—including today’s inside day—is the market preparing for a potential breakout attempt, or if late buyers will be liquidated given the overall downtrend.
Given the immediate overnight weakness, the key to monitor will be buyers’ ability to reclaim the support between 5426 and 5406, which was just broken.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5426—the upper end of the support area. Holding above this level targets Wednesday’s spike base at 5475. Acceptance above 5475 signals strength, targeting 5509, with a final upside target at 5550 under sustained buying pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold above 5426 targets 5406, with a final downside target at 5340 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5426.
Holding above 5426 would target 5475 / 5509 / 5550
Break and hold below 5426 would target 5406 / 5340
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 32.98 and 27.26. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5550 with VIX below 27.26 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5340 with VIX above 32.98 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you very much!
thank you smashie!