ES Daily Plan | April 15, 2024
ES Daily Plan | April 15, 2024
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, we're now monitoring whether Friday’s move will be accepted or rejected.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
Friday’s session rejected Thursday’s double distribution trend day, triggering weakness and consequently led to a double distribution trend day down, breaking and closing below the 3-week balance area. As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, we're now monitoring whether Friday’s move will be accepted or rejected. If accepted, the downside targets I’m looking for are 5129 and 5115. Conversely, a rejection would open the door for a full traverse of Friday’s upper distribution, toward 5215-5225. Monitor sellers' ability to shift the short-term value (5D VPOC) lower, currently at 5205.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5174, representing the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution. Break and hold above 5174 would target the prior 3-week balance low of 5194. Acceptance above 5194 would target a full traverse of Friday’s upper distribution toward the resistance area from 5215 to 5225. Holding below 5174, indicating continued weakness, would target the lower end of Friday’s lower distribution at 5152. Break and hold below 5152 would target a downside continuation toward 5129, as well as the final downside target of 5115.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 5174.
Break and hold above 5174 would target 5194 / 5215 / 5225
Holding below 5174 would target 5152 / 5129 / 5115
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.28 and 16.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5225 with VIX below 16.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5115 with VIX above 18.28 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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