ES Daily Plan | April 14, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, the immediate focus is on Thursday and Friday’s sessions, which are merged on the chart and can be treated as a 2-day balance—or an inside bar. Buyers aim to reclaim the 5410 level, which would set the stage for a revisit of Wednesday’s excess high, while 5300 will act as a downside magnet if they fail to do so.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5410—the upper end of Friday’s range. Holding below this level targets Friday’s IB high at 5340, with a final downside target at the support area between 5300 and 5290 under sustained selling pressure, marking last week’s most traded price by volume (VPOC). On the flip side, failure to hold below 5410 would open the door for a test of Wednesday’s spike base at 5475, with a final upside target at 5509—March’s low—under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5410.
Break and hold above 5410 would target 5475 / 5509
Holding below 5410 would target 5340 / 5300 / 5290
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 40.64 and 34.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5509 with VIX below 34.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5290 with VIX above 40.64 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!
5475 hit. Retrace crawl back to 5509. Huge resistance.