ES Daily Plan | April 10, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
A historic session today, as the market printed a 540-handle range. The overnight session showed early weakness, with immediate traction below Tuesday’s spike base at 4993—the Smashlevel—which ultimately served as a significant level throughout the day. The final downside target for today was the 3-day balance low at 4870, and the overnight session printed a low of 4871.75 before reversing. The VIX resistance at 57.14 was tested pre-open (HOD: 57.96). A reminder that in the Weekly Plan, we discussed how tricky the current environment is and how unattractive it was to chase shorts, despite sellers being in firm control. The weekly support between 4880 and 4840 was defended both on Monday and today overnight. The key wasn’t to catch a 700-handle rally, but to avoid shorting at poor location. Just as the downside move was excessive, today’s upside move was just as extreme—stay highly nimble and adaptable.
The RTH session was, as mentioned, historic. Buyers cleaned up the single prints from Tuesday’s L-period early on, while sellers were unable to gain traction below the 4993 level, leading to the formation of a poor low (LOD: 4980). Change took place in the H-period on tariff relief news, ultimately resulting in a set of single prints ranging 200 handles. The Weekly Extreme High at 5375 was tagged in the process, initially providing a reaction; however, buyers managed to sustain a continuation higher in the afternoon and filled the gap at 5428.50.
The market exploded higher today on tariff relief news, printing a historic 540-handle range and forming a set of single prints in the H-period ranging 200 handles. As a result, the market broke out of the 3-day balance area, filling Friday’s gap at 5428.50 in the process. The key level to observe in the short-term is the previous month’s low at 5509, tagged and rejected in the closing session. Acceptance back within the March range would open the door to filling Thursday’s gap at 5610.75. CPI is on deck tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5509—the March low. Holding below this level targets the spike base at 5475, with a final downside target at the support area between 5400 and 5375 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold below 5509 targets 5550 and 5581, with a final upside target at 5610.75, the unfilled gap, under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5509.
Break and hold above 5509 would target 5550 / 5581 / 5610
Holding below 5509 would target 5475 / 5400 / 5375
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 36.81 and 30.43. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5610 with VIX below 30.43 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5375 with VIX above 36.81 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you for your guidance as always! True legend!
Thank you very much!