ES Daily Plan | April 1, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Friday’s RTH low was breached during Friday’s after-hours trading, making it an immediate reference point for gauging strength or weakness today. The downside momentum from Friday carried over into the overnight session, with the market gapping down below both Friday’s low and after-hours activity. The initial downside target was the 5592 level, which sellers breached and defended throughout the overnight session for several hours, signaling intraday weakness. Buyers' failure to reclaim 5592 led to a test of the final downside target—the support area between 5560 and 5550—which provided a bounce pre-open. The downside pressure was accompanied by the VIX holding above its resistance level.
The RTH session opened with a large true gap to the downside, immediately breaking the ON low and the final downside target at 5550, signaling the potential for a nasty session with an elevated VIX. However, sellers failed to establish acceptance below 5550, as buyers reclaimed the level 10 minutes after the break and shortly after, also regained 5560 and the opening level. The market started to correct the extremely short inventory during the following periods; however, the VIX remained elevated. For me, reclaiming 5592 with the VIX dropping below its resistance level provided a safer environment to fish for longs rather than trying to pick a bottom around 5550—even though that approach ended up working today. The gap was filled to the tick in the H-period, leading to a pullback toward 5592 with a cooled-down VIX, where buyers emerged. The upside momentum following the failed true gap down-and-go was sustained during the afternoon session, as the market reclaimed last week’s low and traversed both the lower and middle distributions from Friday.
Friday’s downside momentum carried over into the overnight session, clearing all downside targets in the process. However, the RTH session saw a sharp reversal following an early failed true gap down-and-go, resulting in a close back within last week’s range and the formation of a double distribution. The key question now is whether the market will continue to clean up Friday’s structure or if this was merely another short-covering rally that will be sold. A weak market would return to today’s lower distribution, rejecting the area where change took place during the J-period. Failure to do so would target further structural cleanup.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5657. Holding below this level targets 5617, with a final downside target at 5592 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, failure to hold below 5657 would open the door for a cleanup of poor structure toward 5687 and 5706, with a final upside target at 5724 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5657.
Break and hold above 5657 would target 5687 / 5706 / 5724
Holding below 5657 would target 5617 / 5592
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.52 and 21.08. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5724 with VIX below 21.08 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5592 with VIX above 23.52 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Love it--thanks!
Impressive stuff as always!