ES Daily Plan | April 1, 2024
Buyers aim to maintain above the immediate support area ranging from 5294 to 5284, targeting the upper end of the inside week and potentially a breakout.
Visual Representation
For new followers, the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Contextual Analysis
On Thursday, the market explored prices above Wednesday’s spike area but fell short of taking out the high of the previous week. This resulted in the formation of a poor high and ultimately led to an inside week. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the highlighted inside week and observing for continuation (Acceptance) or lack thereof (Rejection). If there's a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction.
Buyers aim to maintain above the immediate support area ranging from 5294 to 5284, targeting the upper end of the inside week and potentially a breakout. Failure to do so would open the door for a test of the lower end of the inside week. If breached, it would mark the end of the weekly one-time framing up—a primary objective for sellers.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5294, representing Wednesday’s M-period spike base. Holding above 5294 would target the upper end of the inside week at 5323, which is considered poor. Break and hold above 5323, indicating a successful breakout, would target an upside continuation toward 5337, as well as the final upside target of 5355. Break and hold below 5294 would target 5284. Acceptance below 5284 would target the lower end of the inside week at 5263.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will observe 5294.
Holding above 5294 would target 5323 / 5337 / 5355
Break and hold below 5294 would target 5284 / 5263
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.52 and 12.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5355 with VIX below 12.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5263 with VIX above 13.52 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.