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Smash ES Weekly Outlook | November 28 - December 2, 2022
🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends: 4025.25
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends: 3937.50
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE
Weekly Extreme High: 4160
Weekly Extreme Low: 3905
An in-depth daily plan will, as usual, be published tomorrow.
Previous week’s level of interest 3940 was tested on Monday and held (3937.50), and that was the low of the week. We had a shortened week where buyers managed to break the 3 day balance to the upside and we ended up testing prior week’s high, where we also closed on Friday’s session.
For this week, the main focus will be on the unfinished business we have formed at the highs over the past two weeks. We have a triple top on the daily chart, meaning it’s poor and the more we attack that area, the weaker the resistance. Pay attention to the 3 week volume profile and note where we have established value, meaning where we have spent the most time and volume.
As you can observe, we have spent the most time and volume at the upper end of the profile, meaning we are accepting these higher prices, which essentially means that the auction is probably not finished in that direction due to the lack of excess.
Remember, excess marks the end of one auction and the beginning of another.
If you are short-biased for some reason, you want to see a push out of this area to the upside and fail - to create an excess. Acceptance back within this current area after a test and failure to the upside is a much more interesting scenario to look for shorts, just as interest in longs increased after the 10/13 excess.
The short-term level of interest is 4007, which is a familiar level for those following my daily plans. Holding above 4007 would target that unfinished business for a test of MA200 and 4070. Break and hold above 4070 would target the resistance area from 4120 to the Weekly Extreme High 4160, where selling activity can be expected. Note the unfilled gap at 4103.50.
Break and hold below 4007 would target the most traded price by volume the recent 3 weeks, 3967. Failure to hold 3967 would target the support area from 3945 to the Weekly Extreme Low 3905, where buying activity can be expected.
Upside levels of interest: 4070 | 4103 | 4120 | 4160
Downside levels of interest: 3967 | 3945 | 3905 | 3847
Economic Calendar: November 28 - December 2 | Central Time (GMT -6:00)
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involve high risks with the potential for substantial losses. The information contained in this communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a trade recommendation and should not be construed as such. The reader bears responsibility for any investment decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. Owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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