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ES Weekly Plan | January 9-13, 2023
🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends: 3829
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 3 Week | H: 3928.75 L: 3788.50
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE | 4 Month | H: 4141 L: 3502
Weekly Extreme High: 4045
Weekly Extreme Low: 3785
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow.
During the previous week, we remained within the recent consolidation until Friday, when we saw a directional move driven by the NFP release. The pattern of consolidation had been suggesting that we might be preparing for such a move. If we see a follow through, the big upside magnet to observe will be the familiar HVN 3962.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can establish acceptance at these higher prices following Friday’s triple distribution trend day up. The weekly one time framing down ended, resulting in a return to a 3 week balance. Friday's high at 3928.75 marks the top of the weekly balance, so if breached, the weekly is one time framing up. As long as acceptance is not established below 3875, buyers are not in any huge trouble. It's important to note that the rally originated from a high volume area (highlighted in yellow) where the market has been consolidating for about three weeks. If this directional move has legs, it's advisable to exercise caution and not stand in its way. It's important to remember that many traders are currently on the wrong side from the past three weeks. In the previous Weekly Outlook, we discussed how markets are constantly shifting between balance and imbalance and how we have seen two-sided activity recently. Now, we need to monitor for continuation or a lack thereof and adjust accordingly.
The weekly level of interest is 3913. Holding above 3913 would target the high volume node 3962, which will act as a magnet if buyers follow through. Note the MA50. Break and hold above 3962 would target the resistance area from 4005 to the Weekly Extreme High 4045, where selling activity can be expected. Note the daily unfilled gap just below the resistance area at 3997, as well as the MA200.
Break and hold below 3913 would target 3875, where we basically have three weekly value area highs. Break and hold below 3875 would target the support area from 3825 to the Weekly Extreme Low 3785, where buying activity can be expected.
Upside levels of interest: 3962 | 3997 | 4005 | 4045 | 4080 | 4120
Downside levels of interest: 3875 | 3847 | 3825 | 3785 | 3730 | 3692
Economic Calendar: January 9-13 | Central Time (GMT -6:00)
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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