Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 12-16, 2022

🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends: 3967
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 4 Week | H: 4110 L: 3913.75
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE | 3 Month | H: 4137.75 L: 3502

Weekly Extreme High: 4105
Weekly Extreme Low: 3830

An in-depth daily plan will, as usual, be published tomorrow.

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For this week, the main focus will on the established weekly balance area. Sellers managed to take out the weak area highlighted in prior Weekly Outlook, to end the weekly one time framing up, meaning we are back to a 4 week balance. Pay attention to the shape of previous week's volume profile and note where we have spent the most time and volume. As you can observe, we have spend the most time and volume at the lower end of the profile, meaning we are accepting the lower prices, which essentially means that the auction is probably not finished in that direction due to the lack of excess. However, we did move away from that lower end of the profile on Thursday and Friday, but was that only short covering to bring in stronger sellers for new lows? Friday’s session ended with a closing sell-off. I will pay extra attention on that lower distribution, highlighted in yellow. Buyers want to establish acceptance above that area to target a traverse of this weekly balance area. Failure to do so opens up for a test of the weekly balance low. Note that we have a lot of air below the weekly balance area.

The weekly level of interest is 3975. Break and hold above 3975 would target 4015. Failure to see any sell activity at 4015 would target the resistance area from 4060 to the Weekly Extreme High 4105, where selling activity can be expected. Note the confluence with 4105 and the 4 week balance high. As always, resistance is where you book profits if long and it’s not an optimal location to start initiating new longs.

Failure to regain 3975 would target the 4 week balance low at 3915. Break and hold below 3915 would target the support area from 3875 to the Weekly Extreme Low 3830, where we have the 20% correction level 3847 and a large daily gap at 3825.75. Also, we have a weekly NVPOC at 3815.

Next week, we have CPI, FOMC, and Quad Witching, meaning we need to exercise patience, discipline and above all, risk management. That is how we last in this business, without capital it’s hard to call oneself a trader. Mind your entries and stay nimble.

Upside levels of interest: 4015 | 4060 | 4105 | 4155
Downside levels of interest: 3915 | 3875 | 3830 | 3815

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Economic Calendar: December 12-16 | Central Time (GMT -6:00)

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