Smashelito's ES/SPX Newsletter

Share this post

Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 12-16, 2022

newsletter.smashelito.com

Discover more from Smashelito's ES/SPX Newsletter

Daily and Weekly trading plans for E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) that include accurate levels and market context. The plans are presented in a clear and concise format with visually appealing charts using my concepts of Smashlevels and Smashmodel Extremes.
Over 6,000 subscribers
Continue reading
Sign in

Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 12-16, 2022

Smashelito
Dec 11, 2022
23
Share this post

Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 12-16, 2022

newsletter.smashelito.com
4
Share

🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends: 3967
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE | 4 Week | H: 4110 L: 3913.75
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE | 3 Month | H: 4137.75 L: 3502

Weekly Extreme High: 4105
Weekly Extreme Low: 3830

An in-depth daily plan will, as usual, be published tomorrow.

Download full-size image here

Share this plan with your audience


For this week, the main focus will on the established weekly balance area. Sellers managed to take out the weak area highlighted in prior Weekly Outlook, to end the weekly one time framing up, meaning we are back to a 4 week balance. Pay attention to the shape of previous week's volume profile and note where we have spent the most time and volume. As you can observe, we have spend the most time and volume at the lower end of the profile, meaning we are accepting the lower prices, which essentially means that the auction is probably not finished in that direction due to the lack of excess. However, we did move away from that lower end of the profile on Thursday and Friday, but was that only short covering to bring in stronger sellers for new lows? Friday’s session ended with a closing sell-off. I will pay extra attention on that lower distribution, highlighted in yellow. Buyers want to establish acceptance above that area to target a traverse of this weekly balance area. Failure to do so opens up for a test of the weekly balance low. Note that we have a lot of air below the weekly balance area.

The weekly level of interest is 3975. Break and hold above 3975 would target 4015. Failure to see any sell activity at 4015 would target the resistance area from 4060 to the Weekly Extreme High 4105, where selling activity can be expected. Note the confluence with 4105 and the 4 week balance high. As always, resistance is where you book profits if long and it’s not an optimal location to start initiating new longs.

Failure to regain 3975 would target the 4 week balance low at 3915. Break and hold below 3915 would target the support area from 3875 to the Weekly Extreme Low 3830, where we have the 20% correction level 3847 and a large daily gap at 3825.75. Also, we have a weekly NVPOC at 3815.

Next week, we have CPI, FOMC, and Quad Witching, meaning we need to exercise patience, discipline and above all, risk management. That is how we last in this business, without capital it’s hard to call oneself a trader. Mind your entries and stay nimble.

Upside levels of interest: 4015 | 4060 | 4105 | 4155
Downside levels of interest: 3915 | 3875 | 3830 | 3815


Economic Calendar: December 12-16 | Central Time (GMT -6:00)

Leave a comment


Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involve high risks with the potential for substantial losses. The information contained in this communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a trade recommendation and should not be construed as such. The reader bears responsibility for any investment decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. Owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Twitter: @smashelito | FAQ: smashelito.com

23
Share this post

Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 12-16, 2022

newsletter.smashelito.com
4
Share
Previous
Next
4 Comments
Share this discussion

Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 12-16, 2022

newsletter.smashelito.com
Marco couceiro
Dec 11, 2022Liked by Smashelito

Best reading ever!

I keep struggling to find out which feature you use to determine the weekly extremes ,but without matching 100%,i,ve been using the weekly profiles with that end and most of times gives me a real matching with yours ,so even knowing my approach is not yours in determine the extremes, the results are not very much differents from yours ,so keep tracking this way you teach us all how to work the market.thanks so much

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
newbiemgk
Dec 11, 2022Liked by Smashelito

BRAVO!! I look soooo forward to your reports. I LOVE the homework. Thank you again Smash! Hope you are having a FAB weekend.

Expand full comment
Reply
Share
2 more comments...
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Smashelito
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing