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Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 27-30, 2022
🟥 Daily: OTFD | Ends: 3872.50
🟥 Weekly: OTFD | Ends: 3918.75
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE | 3 Month | H: 4137.75 L: 3502
Weekly Extreme High: 4000
Weekly Extreme Low: 3740
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow.
Last week, sellers managed to take out 3855.25, meaning weekly is one time framing down together with the daily. Early in the week, there was some weakness, but sellers got themselves too short after a drop of about ~300 handles over 5 sessions, leading to some short-covering. Both Tuesday and Wednesday's profiles had a "P-shape", which is indicative of short-covering. On Tuesday, the imbalance to the upside was eventually resolved, but on Wednesday, there was a lack of new buying interest, which was not surprising given that we were retesting the prior weekly balance low 3913, an area of resistance. The failure of buyers to break and hold above 3913 indicated that sellers were still in control, as outlined in prior Weekly Outlook. While we did reach new lows for the week on Thursday, we closed the week back above the prior weekly low.
For this week, the main focus will be on buyers ability to hold above 3856 and sellers ability to defend the daily and more importantly the weekly one time framing down. Buyers main objective is to end the daily one time framing down, which would target previous week’s high for an attempt to put weekly back to balance. Sellers are in control as long as acceptance above 3913 is not established. Above that, the 3960 HVN will act as a magnet. Sellers made several attempts below the 20% correction level 3847 (”bear market” territory) last week, but only Monday's session saw a close below that level.
The weekly level of interest is 3856. Holding above 3856 would target the prior 4 week balance low 3913, where the previous week's high is located. Break and hold above 3913 would target the resistance area from 3955 to the Weekly Extreme High 4000, where selling activity can be expected. The high volume node around 3960 will act as a upside magnet if buyers manage to end the weekly one time framing down. Note the confluence with the daily unfilled gap at 3997 and the Weekly Extreme High 4000.
Break and hold below 3856 would target another test of 3815, which is the Monthly Extreme Low for December. Break and hold below 3815 would target the support area from 3785 to the Weekly Extreme Low 3740, where buying activity can be expected. In the event of further weakness, there is a weekly NVPOC at 3692.
Upside levels of interest: 3913 | 3955 | 4000 | 4060 | 4105
Downside levels of interest: 3856 | 3815 | 3785 | 3740 | 3692
Economic Calendar: December 27-30 | Central Time (GMT -6:00)
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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