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Smash ES Weekly Outlook | December 5-9, 2022
🟨 Daily: BALANCE | 2 Day | H: 4110 L: 4027.50
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends: 3941.25 (Weak)
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE | 3 Month | H: 4137.75 L: 3502
Weekly Extreme High: 4195
Weekly Extreme Low: 3960
An in-depth daily plan will, as usual, be published tomorrow.
One scenario we talked about last week was if we get early weakness without having cleaned up the unfinished business at the highs, sellers needed to be cautious chasing due to the potential for buyers being active on dips. That was exactly what happened and our first downside target 3967 was tagged on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday tested the our highlighted support area, where buyers were active and the unfinished business got resolved after Wednesday’s triple distribution trend day. The main theme of last week was sellers inability to get any downside traction and the NFP sell-off on Friday continued on that same path, and we saw a reversal after tagging the weekly level 4007 almost to the tick in the ON session.
For this week, the main focus will be on buyer’s ability to break and hold above 4084, which is the immediate resistance area to observe short-term. Note that we have 3 daily closes around that area. Sellers defended that level both in Friday’s ON and RTH session, meaning we have stops above. Daily is in a 2 day balance and the areas to observe are the two high volume nodes within that balance range.
The weekly level of interest is 4084. Break and hold above 4084 would target 4120. Failure to see any sell activity at 4120 would target the resistance area from 4155 to the Weekly Extreme High 4195, where selling activity can be expected. Note the unfilled weekly gap 4220.75 above.
Failure to regain 4084 would target the HVN at 4035, aka the middle distribution from the 11/30 trend day. Break and hold below 4035 would target the support area from 4000 to the Weekly Extreme Low 3960, where we have a composite high volume node, meaning an area buyers need to hold. Note the weak area just below with four daily lows close together, meaning we have liquidity below.
Upside levels of interest: 4120 | 4155 | 4195 | 4220
Downside levels of interest: 4035 | 4000 | 3960 | 3905
Economic Calendar: December 5-9 | Central Time (GMT -6:00)
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involve high risks with the potential for substantial losses. The information contained in this communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a trade recommendation and should not be construed as such. The reader bears responsibility for any investment decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. Owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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