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Smash ES Plan | November 17, 2022
Inside day after a full traverse of the blue distribution of interest, which remains my main focus.
Recap & Plan
Very brief today as we had a fairly uneventful session. Buyers attempted to establish acceptance above Smashlevel 4009 twice in the ON session, but failed and formed a poor high, which ended up stopping out those crowded longs. We did also leave an unfinished low in the ON session. Other than that, a fairly balanced profile trading fully within prior day’s range which usually sets up two-sided activity in RTH.
RTH opened at the lower end of the ON range and cleaned up that poor low in A-period. Sellers target in case of holding < 4009 was a traverse of the blue distribution, which was completed, almost to the tick. We end up with an inside day, meaning today’s range is completely within prior day’s range. The daily balance range remains the same in this 4 day balance. The general rule with inside day’s is to go with the breakout. Break to the upside, you want to be a buyer. Break to the downside, you want to be a seller. Monitor for continuation or lack of. Lack of continuation, you want to target other side of balance. An upside break would target the resistance area 4009-4000 and a break and hold above that would target the 4 day balance high, an area where you book profits if long. A downside break would target the 4 day balance low and a break and hold below that would target fills of the poor structure we have been carrying forward from the 11/10 session. Needless to say, but stay nimble as long as we're within the blue distribution, which remains my main focus.
Be aware of false breaks as mentioned, meaning breaks that lack continuation. We've stacked some daily lows very close to each other (white arrows), meaning there should be plenty of stops below. A quick stop-run to then come back and hold within the blue distribution would be an example of a false breakdown. Reminder to check out the Weekly Outlook published last Saturday, where 3960 was our interest level, which has been key so far this week.
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