Smash ES Plan | December 7, 2022

Weekly back to balance after cleaning up the poor structure we had with 4 daily lows close together. Another double distribution down day. Sellers maintaining pressure < 3960, trouble kicks in above.

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Recap & Plan

The ON session was quite uneventful, trading in a very tight range in and out of yesterday’s double distribution. Buyers attempts to establish acceptance above Smashlevel 4007 were met by passive selling activity at 4012, which absorbed that effort.

RTH opened below 4007 and the first 10 minutes buyers were fighting to get going, but sellers defended the entrance back within the upper distribution with the help of FS VWAP (HOD: 4005.50). Once that initial buying effort failed it was really one way traffic. Note the aggressive selling that followed once buyers failed to regain that pivotal level. Sellers downside targets were pretty clear, the magnet 3967 and the Weekly Extreme Low 3960, which was achieved already during the initial balance, meaning the 11/30 trend day is now fully retraced. The auction briefly paused after hitting that prior high volume area, the AM-session VPOC was just 3960, confirming interest. 3960 was the important level for buyers to hold and we got some buying effort around that area during that brief consolidation, but completely lacking any pace to the upside, meaning consolidation at lows which usually is a sign that the auction is most likely not finished in that direction. F-period breached that intraday balance, meaning trouble for buyers. We have been carrying forward previous week’s low around 3940 as poor/weak and it was taken out and cleaned up today.

As always, when we clear the weekly extreme levels early in the week, I’m usually playing defense, meaning I’m very cautious with my entries to not get caught at poor location. Sellers want to hold below 3960 to maintain the selling pressure, so some caution on shorts should we break and hold above. We end with a double distribution with one set of single prints in B-period and a very large A-period excess. Buyers will target fills of that poor structure if they manage to establish acceptance back within the weekly extremes. Weekly one time framing up finally ended, meaning we are back to balance. Daily obviously remains in one time framing down mode, which would end if 4005.50 is breached. The Weekly Extreme Low for NQ is 11549, which is worth tracking since NQ managed to close back above it. RTY is 1826 (Closed below).

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