ES Weekly Plan | September 23-27, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 2D | 5797.50-5733.50
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5669.50
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU
Contract Rollover
During the previous week, I transitioned to the ESZ24 (December) contract. I do not back-adjust my charts, which means the historical prices on my charts remain unchanged. Consequently, my charts may differ from those that undergo back-adjustment. This choice is based on personal preference, as there is no definitive right or wrong approach; both methods have their pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is minimal since we navigate the market day by day, and our weekly targets remain the same regardless of the chosen method.
Contextual Analysis
Last week kicked off with a quiet trading session on Monday, followed by a double-distribution profile on Tuesday, which resulted in new all-time highs for both the ES and SPX. On Wednesday, the market demonstrated its typical volatility during the FOMC meeting, resulting in another ATH, but the session closed near its lows after forming a notable excess high. Despite the weak close, sellers failed to maintain control on Thursday, as the market gapped higher after a strong overnight session, effectively negating the prior day's excess and testing the weekly resistance area. Friday’s session closed within Thursday’s range after rejecting the early weakness.
For this week, the main focus will be on the low volume node (LVN) around the 5730-40 area, which aligns with Wednesday’s high and Friday’s low. Friday’s session closed within the previous week’s upper distribution, above the LVN, while the most traded price by volume (VPOC) from that week remained below. To keep things simple: a strong market will continue to establish value above the LVN, signaling that the upward auction is not yet complete and favoring a continuation. Failure to do so would open the door for a return to the weekly VPOC at 5698, where the market will need to make a crucial decision.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5740/5730, representing a LVN (low volume node), aligning with the 2-day balance low and the weekly VWAP (5731). Holding above 5740 signals strength, targeting the current ATH at 5797.50. Acceptance above 5797.50 would then target the prior Weekly Extreme High of 5820, and the resistance area from 5860 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5885, where selling activity can be expected.
Break and hold below 5730 would target the previous week’s VPOC at 5698. Acceptance below 5698 signals weakness, targeting the support area from 5665 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5640, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the prior 5-week balance high and the 20D VPOC (medium-term value), making it a crucial area for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5740/5730.
Holding above 5740 would target 5797 / 5820 / 5860 / 5885* / 5910 / 5939
Break and hold below 5730 would target 5698 / 5665 / 5640* / 5529 / 5585 / 5560
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Always concise and well made! HAGW!
🙋♀️thanks