ES Weekly Plan | May 13-17, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟩 DAILY: OTFU | ENDS: 5232.75
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5174
🟨 MONTHLY: BALANCE | 2M | H: 5322.75 L: 4991.25
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the key question was whether buyers could sustain their upside momentum following the strong close from the prior week. Monday’s session opened with a true gap up (5166.75), which remained unfilled, signaling strength. On Tuesday, the market breached the 3-week balance area, shifting the weekly to one-time framing up. The remainder of the week saw a continuation to the upside after picking up Wednesday’s pullback. The upside was capped by the Weekly Extreme High of 5260 (HOD: 5264). As always, keep the weekly targets close at hand to avoid making emotional trades at potentially poor locations.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the directional move away from the prior 3-week balance area following last week’s breakout. Currently, the daily and weekly time frames are one-time framing up, while the monthly remains in balance. As we monitor for continuation or lack thereof, the strongest response from the market would involve maintaining above the prior weekly balance high of 5213, which aligns with last week’s VPOC. The primary upside target is the monthly balance high, marked by the all-time high of 5322.75, where we have unfinished business. Failure to hold above 5213 would open the door to fill the weekly gap at 5166.75, which, as long as it remains unfilled, keeps buyers in control. Several economic events are scheduled for this week, including PPI on Tuesday, followed by CPI and Retail Sales on Wednesday.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5213, representing the prior 3-week balance high, coinciding with the most traded price by volume (VPOC) last week. Holding above 5213, signaling strength, would target 5250, where notable order flow activity was observed during Friday’s closing session. Break and hold above 5250 would target an upside continuation toward the resistance area from 5310 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5340, where selling activity can be expected. This resistance area is significant as it marks the top of the current monthly balance area, where the all-time high is located. If breached, the monthly time frame will shift to one-time framing up, effectively resolving the unfinished business we have carried forward. Additionally, take note of the Monthly Extreme High slightly below at 5305.
Break and hold below 5213 would target the support area from 5175 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5145, where buying activity can be expected. Take note of the unfilled weekly gap at 5166.75. Overall, buyers are not facing significant trouble as long as the highlighted weekly support area is maintained—trouble would kick in below.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will observe 5213.
Holding above 5213 would target 5250 / 5310 / 5340* / 5375 / 5405
Break and hold below 5213 would target 5175 / 5166 / 5145* / 5127 / 5100
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Happy weekend smash!! As always a treat plus good knowledge gains of market profile and market context by reading your weekly and daily reports!!
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thanks smash!