ES Weekly Plan | March 9-13, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week, the market kicked off with a true gap down on Monday following overnight weakness, testing the weekly level at 6805 in the process. A look-below-and-fail of 6805 triggered a significant squeeze in the RTH session back to the high volume node at 6880, a level buyers struggled to gain traction above throughout the week.
Tuesday’s session saw another true gap down, and the auction tested the weekly support area between 6730 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6700, from which another significant short-covering rally unfolded, filling the gap and forming a double distribution trend day.
The key following Tuesday’s session was to monitor whether buyers would gain confidence for a move in the opposite direction, as is typical after a failed breakdown. On Wednesday, buyers formed another double distribution trend day, with the auction once again returning to the high volume node at 6880. This was a great example of auction behavior: Tuesday’s initiating activity failed to follow through, leading the auction to return to value.
Things quickly escalated on Thursday, as the market negated Wednesday’s trend day by rejecting its upper distribution. The single prints that formed on both Tuesday and Wednesday were filled in the process. Friday’s session resembled Wednesday’s, opening on a true gap down and testing the weekly support, where buyers stepped in. However, while buyers were able to fill the gap, they were unable to replicate the squeezes from earlier in the week, ultimately allowing sellers to secure their first daily close below the multi-week balance area.
Friday’s gap-fill reversals were nasty. The most notable was the absorption in the H-period. Once revisited in the L-period, sellers stepped in aggressively (see Figure 1).
The focus now shifts to whether the market can build acceptance below the multi-week balance area or if another quick rejection will occur. Given the size of this balance area, sellers’ breakdown attempts have not been convincing, and even Friday’s session lacked meaningful conviction, forming a weak low against Wednesday’s low. A strong breakdown would not have allowed Friday’s true gap to be filled and should have breached the 6730–6700 support area. For now, staying nimble is the name of the game; we are currently dealing with a VIX at ~30.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 6780.50
🟥 Weekly: OTFD → Ends at: 6911.25
🟥 Monthly: OTFD
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this week is to monitor whether sellers can maintain downside momentum after initiating a multi-week balance breakdown and securing the first daily close below the range on Friday. As with any break from balance, the focus now shifts to whether the market can build acceptance below or quickly reject the move, making 6791 a short-term inflection point.
Keep it simple: Acceptance and value building below the multi-week balance area, meaning the market fails to quickly reclaim 6791 and avoids a repeat of Tuesday’s failed breakdown, would be a bearish development. This would set the stage for downside continuation toward the 50% and 100% range extensions.
Failure to do so, meaning the market fails to sustain the shift from balance to imbalance, would disappoint Friday’s initiating activity below value and likely trigger a return to value, the most traded price by volume this year at 6880.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6791, the prior multi-week balance low. Break and hold above 6791, indicating another failed breakdown, would target the high volume node (HVN) at 6880, acting as an upside magnet. Acceptance above 6880 would signal further strength and open the door to a move into the resistance area between 6930 and the Weekly Extreme High at 6960, where selling activity can be expected. The current all-time highs still carry unfinished business, with a lack of excess and an untested overnight ATH at 7043.
Holding below 6791, indicating a successful breakdown, would target downside continuation toward the support area between 6692 and 6670. This support is a notable HTF area, aligning both with and the 5% correction level at 6680 and the 50% range extension of the multi-week balance area at 6671, making it a crucial reference to monitor. Acceptance below 6670 would signal further weakness and open the door to a move into the support area between 6570 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6540, where buying activity can be expected. This would effectively complete a 100% range extension of the prior multi-week balance area, revisiting November’s low in the process.
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6791.
Break and hold above 6791 would target 6880 / 6930 / 6960* / 7031 / 7043
Holding below 6791 would target 6692 / 6670 / 6570 / 6540* / 6470
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thanks Smash!
As always, a great job!!