ES Weekly Plan | June 12-16, 2023
Below are my expectations for the week ahead.
🟩 Daily: OTFU | Ends: 4249
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends: 4264.50
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends: 4062.25
Weekly Extreme High: 4430
Weekly Extreme Low: 4270
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow.
Starting from Monday, I will be transitioning to the ESU23 (September) contract. Please note that I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I have marked the settlements for both ESM23 (June) (4304.75) and ESU23 (September) (4348.75) from Friday’s session (+44 difference). I suggest marking 4304.75 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. The levels for next week are based on Friday’s session from the ESU23 (September) contract. Last week, the market took a breather after the breakout observed in the preceding week. On Tuesday, the sellers effectively ended the daily one-time framing up, leading to two-sided activity in the following two days. Friday's session experienced another breakout, although it was not as definitive, as the session ended with the market closing back within the balance range.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether the buyers can establish acceptance above Friday’s afternoon rally high of 4358 (ESU23), which would favor an upside continuation of the daily imbalance. Both extremes of Friday’s profile are poor. The market is one-time framing up across all time frames, indicating that buyers are in full control of the auction. The primary objective for sellers is to put an end to the daily one-time framing up, and until that occurs, maintaining a bearish stance becomes quite challenging. The upcoming week will be filled with several significant events, such as CPI, PPI, FOMC, ECB, as well as Retail Sales and OPEX, suggesting that there is limited justification for making any bold market predictions regarding its direction. Day-by-day navigation remains paramount.
The weekly level of interest is 4358, which represents Friday’s afternoon rally high (ESU23). Break and hold above 4358 would target the resistance area from 4395 to the Weekly Extreme High 4430, where selling activity can be expected. Take note of the Monthly Extreme High (June) at 4410 (adjusted for ESU23), as it adds an additional layer of confluence to the resistance area.
Holding below 4358 would target the August high of 4327.50 (I do not back-adjust my charts). Break and hold below 4327.50 would target the support area from 4305 to the Weekly Extreme Low 4270, where buying activity can be expected. Take note of Friday’s ESM23 (June) settlement at 4304.75, which can act as a downside magnet. As I’ve mentioned the recent Weekly Plans, for any significant change to occur in the bigger picture, the sellers would need to break and hold below the Weekly Extreme Low, with a weekly close below it being preferred.
🟩 Upside: 4395 | 4410 | 4430 | 4460 | 4490
🟥 Downside: 4327 | 4305 | 4270 | 4240 | 4215
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Hi Smash,
Can you elaborate on why you choose not to back adjust your charts? Is there some advantage? It seems like over time it would get really disconnected from the market.